The Trading Post | 01.09.26

January 09, 2026

Good morning,

SCOTUS is about to decide whether Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs live or get yeeted (refunds = spicy), December payrolls hit at 8:30 ET, defense ripped on a $1.5T budget push, Trump ordered a $200B MBS-buying “because rates,” and small-caps keep flexing while mega-cap tech takes a nap.

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Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 01.08.26 market close.

Market News

  • SCOTUS tariff ruling is the day’s other landmine: If tariffs get struck down, watch immediate beta-chasing in IWM/XLY/XRT and anything that lives on imported inventory…plus a quick “who pays the refund?” reality check. Reuters

  • NFP at 8:30 ET = first punch: Below ~50K jobs = rate-cut dreams get louder (homebuilders/REITs perk up). Hot print = yields pop, risk trims, and your stop losses get promoted. MorningStar

  • Defense went full meme-stonk on budget talk: $1.5T by 2027 has ITA/XAR traders doing cartwheels. Keep one eye on headlines…because the same mouth also threatened payouts yesterday. Reuters

  • $200B MBS buying order = housing headline adrenaline: XHB + mortgage names (RKT/TREE) get a sugar high. If mortgage rates don’t actually fall soon…expect the “wait, what?” fade. Reuters

  • Venezuela oil headlines = long timeline, short attention span: Treat this as narrative fuel, not a 2026 production shock. Watch WTI reactions for oversold bounce setups in XLE…not “new supply” fantasies. BBC

  • Rotation check: Russell keeps making new highs while Nasdaq sulks…which is basically the market saying “try diversification, you gremlin.” Yahoo Finance

  • Crypto: BTC staying above ~$90K is bullish…until it isn’t. Clean break over ~$92K = continuation; sloppy reject = trapdoor to the high-$80Ks. Yahoo Finance

  • Banks next week: Earnings season starts to matter again. Financials look strong into prints, but don’t confuse “good quarter” with “straight line up.” Reuters

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Trade Ideas

Apple Inc (AAPL), Astera Labs, Inc (ALAB), Ares Management L.P. (ARES), Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), Datadog, Inc (DDOG), Deere & Company (DE)

Digital Realty Trust, Inc (DLR), Kkr (KKR), Eli Lily and Company (LLY), 3M Company (MMM)

Pinduoduo Inc (PDD), Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), Philip Morris International (PM), Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ)

Roku, Inc (ROKU), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), TransMedics Group, inc (TMDX), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Texas Roadhouse, Inc (TXRH), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), Apple Inc (AAPL)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower.

William O'Neil

Why It Matters:

This is the market’s way of reminding you that feelings are not indicators.

What “feels expensive” is usually just strong momentum doing its job. What “feels cheap” is often a stock politely informing you that something is structurally wrong—and price is simply the messenger getting shot.

Crowds anchor to old prices. Traders anchor to charts.

The majority sees a stock up 80% and screams bubble. The market sees higher highs, expanding volume, and says continue. Meanwhile, the same crowd sees a 60% drawdown and whispers value, while the trend quietly sharpens its knife.

Traders don’t get paid for being early, comfortable, or clever.
They get paid for aligning with strength, respecting weakness, and ignoring the emotional Yelp reviews.

If it feels obvious, it’s probably crowded.
If it feels scary, it’s probably working.