The Trading Post | 01.15.26

January 15, 2026

Good morning,

AI-chip momentum is back in the driver’s seat after TSMC’s blowout quarter, banks are trading headline risk instead of balance sheets, crude and gold are snapping back after Iran jitters cool, and leadership continues rotating away from mega-cap tech into small caps and cyclicals ahead of jobless claims and a packed Fed-speaker slate.

Stop trading alone—discover the 3 secrets that can help you scale your trading success and finally find consistency in 2026. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 01.14.26 market close.

Market News

  • TSMC blows past Q4 expectations and cranks AI capex higher — Record revenue and profits plus a massive 2026 capex hike confirm AI hardware demand is still accelerating, lifting semis and Nasdaq futures pre-market. Multi-year theme firmly intact. Reuters

  • Banks deliver decent fundamentals, stocks trade political risk instead — Loan growth and net interest income remain solid, but proposed credit-card rate caps knocked the bank index to multi-week lows ahead of GS, MS, and BLK earnings. Reuters

  • Crude reverses sharply as Iran risk premium evaporates; gold cools — Oil snaps a five-day rally after Trump tones down strike talk, while gold pulls back from record highs as safe-haven demand fades. Volatility is back. Reuters

  • Mega-cap tech stumbles while small caps and cyclicals keep winning — Nasdaq and S&P log back-to-back losses as money continues rotating into Russell 2000, industrials, and materials at fresh highs. CNBC

  • Jobless claims, Fed speakers, and chip policy headlines set the tone — 8:30 ET labor data, multiple Fed officials, and ongoing semiconductor tariff noise raise the odds of fast intraday reversals. WSJ

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Earnings We’re Watching

  • BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Apollo Global Management (APO), Ares Management L.P. (ARES), Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc (CHRW), Charter Communications, Inc (CHTR), DoorDash, Inc (DASH), Eaton Company (ETN)

ICON plc (ICLR), Kkr (KKR), Lowe’s Companies, Inc (LOW), Direxion Daily Gold Miners (NUGT)

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Shopify Inc - Class A (SHOP), Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), Snowflake Inc Class A (SNOW)

Simon Property Group, Inc (SPG), Seagate Technology (STX), Constellation Brands Inc (STZ), Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA)

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO), Ares Management LP (ARES)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

This isn’t a shot at management — it’s a reminder about durability. Great businesses don’t need heroic leadership every quarter; they survive average decisions, bad headlines, and the occasional executive “strategy pivot” PowerPoint. That resilience shows up in margins, cash flow, and price behavior when markets get choppy.

For traders, the lesson is simple: structures matter more than stories. Companies with real moats and boring consistency tend to respect levels, recover faster from selloffs, and give you cleaner trade locations. Weak businesses need perfect execution just to survive — and the tape usually tells you when that illusion breaks.

Translation: trade strength, not genius. The market eventually stress-tests every company with bad decisions. Own — or trade — the ones built to pass that test.