The Trading Post | 02.12.26

Good morning,

House Republicans moved to end Trump’s Canada tariffs in a rare political plot twist, January CPI hits at 8:30 with sticky inflation expected, AppLovin and Cisco both beat but slipped on guidance reactions, and oil is stuck between Iran tension and softer global demand forecasts.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.11.26 market close.

Market News

• House Votes to End Canada Tariffs: Six Republicans broke ranks to pass a resolution disapproving of the 25% Canada tariffs (220–208), sending the bill to the Senate despite long odds. Reuters

• CPI at 8:30 AM ET — The Main Event: Consensus expects 2.9% headline and 3.1% core YoY, with updated seasonal adjustments potentially adding noise to the print. CNBC

• AppLovin Slips on Soft Q1 Guide: Q4 beat on revenue and EPS, but lighter Q1 guidance sent shares down over 5% after hours despite bullish analyst commentary. Yahoo Finance

• Cisco Beats, Sells the News: Revenue rose 9% YoY and AI-related orders surged 70%+, yet shares dipped post-earnings as investors parsed forward guidance. Reuters

• Oil Whipsaws on Iran + IEA Demand Cut: Crude initially rose on U.S.-Iran tensions before reversing after the IEA lowered global demand growth forecasts, keeping WTI trapped in a tight range. MarketWatch

Earnings We’re Watching

• Ambev S.A. (ABEV) - Thursday (BMO) 

• American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Baxter International, Inc. (BAX) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Brookfield Corporation (BN) - Thursday (BMO) 

• CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc. (CNR) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Fortis Inc. (FTS) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc. (LECO) - Thursday (BMO) 

• PG&E Corp. (PCG) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Thursday (BMO) 

• TransUnion (TRU) - Thursday (BMO) 

• US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Zebra Technologies Corp. (ZBRA) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) - Thursday (AMC) 

• DexCom Inc (DXCM) - Thursday (AMC) 

• DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Expedia, Inc. (EXPE) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Public Storage, Inc. (PSA) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Roku Inc (ROKU) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Toast (TOST) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Wynn Resorts ltd (WYNN) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Economic forecasts come with decimal points. Astrology comes with rising moons.

The accuracy rate? Debatable.

Wall Street economists will tell you CPI will come in at 3.1%… unless it’s 2.9%. Or 3.3%. Or “distorted by seasonal adjustments.” And after the fact, there will always be a very logical explanation.

Forecasting makes us feel in control. Markets remind us we’re not.

For traders, this is the punchline: you don’t get paid for predicting the number — you get paid for reacting to it. The CPI print isn’t your edge. Your risk management is.

Economists try to predict the future.
Traders manage uncertainty.

One of those professions needs crystal balls.
The other needs stop losses.

On CPI day especially, remember: trade the reaction, not the horoscope.