The Trading Post | 02.17.26

February 17, 2026

Good morning,

Nasdaq futures are sliding as AI darlings wobble and chip stocks drag tech lower, soft inflation is boosting June rate-cut odds and pressing yields to multi-month lows, hyperscaler AI capex is suddenly a margin risk instead of a badge of honor, cruise and travel names are catching premarket bids on strong demand chatter, and the dollar is pausing ahead of Fed minutes and PCE with cross-asset volatility on standby.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.16.26 market close.

Market News

  • Nasdaq futures slide as AI darlings wobble: Chip stocks and high-multiple names are leading weakness as traders reassess frothy valuations. Failed bounces into resistance are actionable. WSJ

  • Soft inflation lifts June cut odds: Fed funds futures now price roughly 60 bps of easing this year, with June increasingly in play as the 10-year yield hits multi-month lows. Reuters

  • AI capex flagged as margin risk: Evercore warns hyperscaler spending could pressure free cash flow and eventually margins—suddenly “invest at all costs” has…costs. Fortune

  • Cruise and travel names pop premarket: Upbeat demand headlines are driving selective strength and creating clean relative-strength setups vs. weak tech. Reuters

  • Dollar steadies before Fed minutes and PCE: FX, rates, and crypto traders brace for the next macro catalyst as DXY tries to carve out a near-term floor. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Genuine Parts Company (GPC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Laboratory Corp. Of America Holdings (LH) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Leidos Holdings Inc. (LDOS) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • SUNOCOCORP LLC (SUNC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) - Tuesday (AMC) 

  • FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) - Tuesday (AMC) 

  • Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) - Tuesday (AMC) 

  • Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Astera Labs, Inc (ALAB),
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK_B), CME Group Inc (CME), Dell Technologies Inc (DELL),
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS)

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc (ELF), Fortress Transportation & Infr (FTAI), Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL),
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

Robinhood Markets, Inc (HOOD), Insmed, Inc (INSM), Kratos Defense Security (KTOS),
Linde plc - Ordinary Shares (LIN)

Lemonade, Inc (LMND), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI),
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC), Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW),
Texas Roadhouse, Inc (TXRH), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

Everyone loves this quote. Almost no one actually follows it.

When AI stocks are vertical and price targets are getting revised like fantasy football rosters, greed doesn’t feel like greed. It feels like “momentum.” It feels justified. It feels obvious.

That’s exactly the problem.

“Be fearful when others are greedy” isn’t about panicking. It’s about recognizing when risk is being underpriced. When traders stop asking “what could go wrong?” and start asking “how high can it go?” That’s usually when position sizing gets sloppy and stops get wide… or disappear entirely.

Flip it.

When fear spikes—VIX jumps, headlines scream, weak hands dump at market—that’s when opportunity quietly shows up. Not because the world is ending. But because price often overshoots reality.

The key phrase in Buffett’s quote is the first one: “Close the doors.”
It means tune out the noise. No echo chambers. No dopamine scrolling. No crowd psychology dictating your entries.

In trading terms:

• Fade euphoria into resistance.
• Accumulate quality into panic levels.
• Size up when risk is defined.
• Size down when emotion is high.

This isn’t about being a contrarian for sport.
It’s about recognizing that extremes create edge.

The crowd gives you liquidity.
Your job is to take it… not join it.