The Trading Post | 02.18.26

February 18, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are drifting higher ahead of today’s Fed minutes, the S&P 500 is retesting its 100-day moving average like it actually matters, AI panic is cooling (for now), Ovintiv pops on a $3B asset sale, and Booking/Uber/DoorDash earnings could inject some well-timed chaos.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.17.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Rise Ahead of Fed Minutes: Traders are positioning into 2PM like it’s a coin flip with better PR. Expect algos to light up on any language shift around inflation persistence or rate timing. CNBC

  • S&P 500 Retests 100-Day Moving Average: The 100-DMA is acting like “rock-solid support”…until it isn’t. A hold = squeeze higher. A clean break = fast money heads for the exits. Bloomberg

  • AI Worries Recede (Temporarily): Nasdaq futures are green as the market pretends AI capex concerns were just a phase. Rotation back into mega-cap tech is on watch. Yahoo Finance

  • Ovintiv Jumps on $3B Asset Sale: Capital discipline is suddenly sexy again. Energy names showing relative strength while tech debates its identity crisis. Benzinga

  • Booking, Uber, DoorDash Report: High-beta consumer names into a Fed week. Translation: implied volatility isn’t here for your comfort. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Moody’s Corporation (MCO) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Carvana Co. (CVNA) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • EBay, Inc. (EBAY) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Apple Inc. (AAPL), Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), AMTEK, Inc (AME),
Arista Networks, Inc (ANET)

Cadence Design Systems, Inc (CDNS), CME Group, Inc (CME), CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV),
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

F5 Netowkrs, Inc (FFIV), Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU), Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc (HLT),
Insmed, Inc. (INSM)

Lennar Corporation (LEN), Lemonade, Inc (LMND), GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDL),
Philip Morris International (PM)

Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB), Shake Shack, Inc (SHAK), Apple Inc (AAPL),
Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.

Ed Seykota

Why It Matters:

At first glance, it sounds absurd. Nobody wants to lose.

But zoom out.

Some traders say they want consistency…
…but secretly chase excitement. So they oversize.
They skip stops.
They revenge trade.
They get volatility.

And volatility is exactly what they subconsciously signed up for.

Others say they want freedom…
…but they never build a repeatable process.
They hop from strategy to strategy.
They avoid journaling.
They avoid discipline.

They get chaos.

And chaos is exactly what they fed.

The market is a mirror. It doesn’t give you what you say you want.
It gives you what your behavior demands.

If you want adrenaline, you’ll find it.
If you want validation, you’ll force trades to get it.
If you want to prove you’re right, you’ll hold losers.
If you want consistency, you’ll build rules and follow them.

So the real question isn’t:
“Why did the market do this to me?”

It’s:
“What am I repeatedly choosing?”

Because over time, P&L aligns with personality.

And the market always pays you in the currency of your habits.