The Trading Post | 02.19.26

February 19, 2026

Good morning,

Fed minutes showed a split on rate cuts (and maybe hikes), oil is spiking on fresh US-Iran tensions, Walmart reports before the bell, Carvana just fell 16% on margin pressure, and Nvidia’s AI tailwind keeps the Mag 7 party alive… for now.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.18.26 market close.

Market News

  • Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Cuts — Traders Now Weigh a HIKE: Officials are divided between cutting if inflation cooperates or holding steady until disinflation is “firmly back on track,” with markets pricing roughly a 50% chance of a June cut. 247wallst

  • US-Iran Tensions Push Oil Higher, Futures Slip: Military buildup headlines send crude higher as risk premiums creep back into energy markets. wsj

  • Walmart Earnings Set Consumer Tone for 2026: The retail bellwether reports before the bell, and its guidance could shape the soft-landing narrative. cnbc

  • Carvana Crashes 16% on Margin Squeeze: Higher inspection and repair costs hit per-unit economics despite long-term targets staying intact. benzinga

  • Nvidia & Meta Partnership Fuels AI Momentum: Nvidia climbed again as Meta expands its chip demand for AI data centers, keeping leadership narrow but powerful. ksat

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Deere & Company (DE) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Klarna (KLAR) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Walmart Inc. (WMT) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Wayfair Inc. (W) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), Astera Labs, Inc (ALAB), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), Cadence Design Systems, Inc (CDNS)

CME Group, Inc (CME), Cencora, Inc (COR), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO),
Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)

F5 Networks, Inc (FFIV), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Lennar Corporation (LEN),
Lemonade Inc (LMND)

Oracle Corporation (ORCL), S&P 500 BULL 3X (SPXL), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN),
Texas Roadhouse, Inc (TXRH)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

I made my money by selling too soon.

Bernard Baruch

Why It Matters:

This is the most psychologically offensive sentence in trading.

Because every trader wants to nail the top. We want the screenshot. The victory lap. The group chat flex.

Baruch is basically saying:
“I left money on the table… on purpose.”

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Trying to squeeze the last 5–10% out of a move is where most traders give back 30%.

Selling “too soon” means:

  • You locked in gains before euphoria peaked

  • You exited while liquidity was still strong

  • You didn’t wait for the inevitable rug pull disguised as “just a pullback”

In markets like this — narrow leadership, AI momentum, macro headline roulette — tops are violent and fast. The final leg higher feels unstoppable… until it isn’t.

Professionals understand something retail hates:
You don’t need the top. You need consistency.

If you consistently take 60–80% of a move, compound that over years, and avoid catastrophic drawdowns… you win.

Selling too soon:

  • Preserves capital

  • Protects psychology

  • Keeps you liquid for the next setup

  • Avoids the emotional spiral of “I should’ve…”

Perfection is expensive.
Discipline is profitable.

The market rewards the trader who walks away slightly annoyed… not the one who stays for the encore and gets crushed when the music stops.