The Trading Post | 02.20.26

February 20, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are treading water ahead of PCE and GDP, crude is bid on U.S.–Iran tensions, dispersion under the surface is exploding, Live Nation is rocking while Newmont gets sold, and premarket movers are serving up 20%+ swings before your coffee kicks in.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.19.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures stall ahead of PCE and GDP as crude climbs on Iran tensions: Traders are bracing for volatility around inflation and growth data while geopolitical risk caps risk-on appetite. Reuters 

  •  Energy leads as crude extends gains: XLE shows relative strength while utilities and real estate lag as higher oil prices reshuffle sector leadership. Nasdaq

  • High dispersion beneath the surface: The S&P 500 sits near highs, yet more than 20% of components have already moved 20%+ this year—stock pickers’ market, not index huggers’. NYT

  • Live Nation rallies, Newmont slips: Strong concert demand boosts LYV while NEM falls despite a beat, suggesting “sell the news” in gold miners. CNBC

  • Premarket standouts swing hard: Chemours dives on a loss, Grail collapses after a failed trial, Opendoor spikes on a revenue beat and 2026 profitability target, and Akamai sinks on soft guidance. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

  • BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) - Friday (BMO) 

  • Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (CLMT) - Friday (BMO) 

  • Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) - Friday (BMO) 

  • NielsenIQ (NIQ) - Friday (BMO) 

  • TransAlta Corporation (TAC) - Friday (BMO) 

  • Chemical & Mining Co. Of Chile Inc. (SQM) - Friday (AMC) 

  • Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) - Friday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

AMTEK Inc (AME), AeroVironment, Inc (AVAV), Carvana Co. (CVNA), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Dollar Tree, Inc (DLTR), e.l.f Beauty (ELF), First Solar, Inc (FSLR)

Home Depot, Inc. (HD), Karatos Defense & Security (KTOS), Lennar Corporation (LEN),
Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)

Lowe’s Companies, Inc (LOW), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), Cloudflare, Inc. (NET), GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDL)

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Restoration Hardware Holdings (RH), TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL), TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

Tapestry, Inc (TPR), AMTEK Inc (AME), AeroVironment, Inc (AVAV), Carvana Co. (CVNA)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Investing is simple, but not easy.

Warren Buffet

Why It Matters:

The rules are boringly straightforward.

Buy quality.
Control risk.
Let time work.
Don’t overtrade.

That’s it. There’s no secret Fibonacci level guarded by monks in Omaha.

What makes it hard?

Discipline.

It’s simple to hold winners.
It’s not easy when they pull back 8% in two days.

It’s simple to cut losers.
It’s not easy when your ego is involved.

It’s simple to wait for your setup.
It’s not easy when futures are moving and Twitter says “THIS IS THE BREAKOUT.”

The market doesn’t pay you for knowing what to do.
It pays you for doing it… repeatedly… when it’s uncomfortable.

Trading edge is usually obvious in hindsight. Execution edge is rare in real time.

Simple. Not easy.

See you at the open.