The Trading Post | 02.26.26

February 26, 2026

Good morning,

Nvidia beat and barely budged, Salesforce’s guidance reignited AI software anxiety, Trade Desk face-planted on soft outlook, the Supreme Court just reshaped the tariff chessboard, and AMD dropped $250M to muscle into enterprise AI.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 02.25.26 market close.

Market News

  • Nvidia beats, stock yawns: Q4 revenue $68.1B vs $66.2B est., Q1 guide ~$78B — and shares barely green premarket. The bar is no longer high. It’s orbital. CNBC 

  • Salesforce slides on guidance: Strong Q4, soft FY27 outlook. AI inside SaaS isn’t exciting investors…AI replacing SaaS is. CNBC

  • Trade Desk tanks ~16%: Beat Q4, missed on Q1 outlook. Growth deceleration > buyback announcement. Benzinga 

  • Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs: Trump pivots within hours to Section 122, rolling out 15% global tariffs (150-day clock ticking). Trade policy isn’t gone — it just changed uniforms. Reuters

  • AMD invests $250M in Nutanix: Enterprise AI stack play. Nutanix +23% premarket. AMD trying to pry open Nvidia’s enterprise moat. Benzinga

  • Copper rips to historic levels: Infrastructure + electrification + supply constraints. Dr. Copper diagnosing something big. Bloomberg

  • Jobless Claims today (8:30am ET): Labor still dictates the Fed’s tone. Three cuts still priced in for 2026. Reuters

  • Dell, Intuit, Zscaler after the bell: Software on trial again tonight. (MarketWatch)

  • S&P now +1.5% YTD: Two-day bounce erased February gloom — but leadership is thinning. Bloomberg

  • VIX under 18: Markets calm. Maybe too calm. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.  (HTZ) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • TD Bank Group (TD) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • TopBuild Corp. (BLD) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Block, Inc. (XYZ) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Dell Technologies (DELL) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Intuit Inc. (INTU) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

AMTEK, Inc. (AME), Aon Corporation (AON), Bloom Energy Corporation (BE),
Builders FirstSource, Inc. Com (BLDR)

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Coherent Corp. Common Stock (COHR), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO), Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS)

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), International Business Machine (IBM), Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG),
Lowe's Companies, Inc (LOW)

3M Company (MMM), Cloudflare, Inc (NET), NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG), Onto Innovation, Inc. (ONTO)

Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB), Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SCCO), Snowflake, Inc. Class A Common (SNOW), The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu (TSM), TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), AMTEK, Inc. (AME), Aon Corporation (AON), Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

There’s a fine line between conviction… and arrogance.

Most traders read this quote and think it’s about money. It’s not. It’s about certainty.

Buffett didn’t “know” because he had a crystal ball. He knew because he trusted the process. He trusted compounding. He trusted discipline. He trusted that time + edge = outcome.

Traders, on the other hand, often say they’re going to be rich… right before revenge-trading a blown setup with 3x size.

Real conviction in markets doesn’t look loud. It doesn’t chase. It doesn’t FOMO into breakouts after three green candles.

It looks boring.
It looks repetitive.
It looks like following your plan when the last three trades lost.

The market doesn’t reward confidence. It rewards consistency.

If you “know” you’re going to succeed, make sure that belief is backed by risk management, patience, and an actual edge… not vibes.

Because doubt doesn’t blow accounts. Overconfidence does.

See you tomorrow.