The Trading Post | 03.04.26

March 04, 2026

Good morning,

Markets are balancing war headlines, macro data landmines, and an earnings-heavy open as traders watch Iran tensions, ADP and ISM data, a busy retail/SaaS earnings slate, and growing scrutiny on crowded AI chip trades while volatility quietly creeps higher.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.03.26 market close.

Market News

  • U.S. stocks on edge as Iran conflict drags on: Dip buyers keep defending support while war jitters fuel volatility in energy and defense names. Tactical traders should expect wide intraday ranges in SPY and QQQ and use recent swing lows as the line between mean-reversion and trend continuation. cnbc

  • Energy and defense momentum remains the cleanest war trade: XLE, XOM, CVX, LMT, NOC, and RTX continue attracting rotation flows as crude and geopolitical risk stay elevated. Look for breakout continuation above recent consolidation highs or sharp failed-breakout reversals for fast intraday trades. cnbc

  • ADP jobs and ISM services could inject mid-week volatility: The 8:15 and 10:00 ET data combo has potential to trigger stop-runs in ES and NQ futures. Traders may look to fade the initial spike back toward VWAP only if higher-timeframe structure holds. cnbc

  • Short-dated options face potential vol crush around data: If ADP and ISM land near consensus, implied volatility in SPX and QQQ could deflate quickly. Premium sellers may target defined support/resistance zones for intraday iron condors or short-premium structures. federalreserve

  • Earnings radar lights up with DY, BBWI, ANF, and WIX reporting: Retail and SaaS names are back on day-trader watchlists. Opening-range breakouts with strong relative volume often drive the cleanest post-earnings trend trades. nasdaq

  • Relative strength plays matter more than ever on earnings days: Traders often buy stocks that hold pre-market gaps above prior resistance and fade those that fail to reclaim pre-market highs after the open. Building a real-time leaderboard of winners and losers can surface the day’s best momentum names. cnbc

  • AI chip leaders remain the market’s emotional center: NVDA’s recent weakness and upcoming Broadcom earnings have traders questioning how crowded the semiconductor momentum trade has become. SOXX and SMH ETFs are key barometers for tech sentiment today. investing

  • Semiconductor stocks are primed for squeezes or flushes: Using the prior session’s high and low as trigger levels can help traders capture directional momentum while avoiding chop inside the range. Pair trades between strong and weak semi names can also reduce broad-market exposure. investing

  • Options positioning could drive late-day moves in NVDA and AVGO: Heavy open interest near key strikes increases the odds of gamma-driven pinning or acceleration into the close if price escapes the range. barchart

  • Volatility continues creeping higher as traders hedge geopolitical risk: If VIX futures break recent swing highs while equities hold support, traders may look at cheap SPY put spreads or VIX call spreads as asymmetric hedges. reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Accenture plc (ACN), Aon Corporation (AON), Ares Management L.P. (ARES),
Arm Holdings plc - American De (ARM)

Boeing Company (BA), CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE), Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS),
Digital Realty Trust, Inc (DLR)

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL), Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU), iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Philip Morris International (PM), Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ), Roku, Inc (ROKU)

Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SCCO), Snowflake Inc. Class A Common (SNOW), S&P Global Inc (SPGI), TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI)

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Accenture plc (ACN), Aon Corporation (AON),
Ares Management L.P. (ARES)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.

Jesse Livermore

Why It Matters:

Markets love to pretend they’re evolving. New technologies, new tickers, new buzzwords—AI today, crypto yesterday, railroads a century ago. The costumes change, but the actors are the same: greed, fear, hope, and panic.

Livermore’s point is brutally simple: the market’s mechanics may modernize, but human behavior never does.

Every bubble feels revolutionary while it’s inflating. Every crash feels like the end of the world while it’s happening. And every cycle convinces a fresh batch of traders that this time is different.

It never is.

For active traders, this is actually good news. If speculation has been running on the same emotional fuel for centuries, then price patterns, momentum bursts, panic flushes, and euphoric blow-offs will keep repeating too.

The headlines change.
The psychology doesn’t.

Which is why charts still work.

And why the trader who studies history usually has a pretty good idea how the next episode of market drama might play out.