The Trading Post | 03.06.26

March 06, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are pointing to a weak open after Thursday’s nearly 800-point Dow slide, oil is spiking again on Middle East conflict, traders are bracing for a volatile Nonfarm Payrolls report, the Dow is testing key 100-day EMA support, and Wall Street is quietly warning that correction risk is rising even if a full bear market isn’t likely.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.05.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Slip After 800-Point Dow Drop: Index futures are red across the board as traders digest Thursday’s sharp selloff while crude spikes on escalating Middle East tensions. Expect traders to sell strength into resistance early if risk sentiment remains fragile. CNBC

  • Nonfarm Payrolls Could Spark Volatility: Markets expect roughly 60K job growth vs. 130K prior, with unemployment near 4.3%, making today’s labor report a potential catalyst for rate-cut expectations. Translation: brace for a whipsaw around the release before the real direction shows up. FXDailyReport

  • Dow Testing Key Technical Support: After the recent pullback, the Dow is approaching trendline and 100-day EMA support near 48,000, a level bulls have defended before. A bounce here could trigger a short-covering rally, but a clean break likely invites momentum sellers. CNBC

  • Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Jitters: Crude pushing into the mid-$80s is reviving inflation fears and muddying the Fed rate-cut timeline. Energy and defense stocks continue showing relative strength while growth stocks wobble. Investopedia

  • Goldman Flags Correction Risk: Strategists say geopolitics, stretched valuations, and tech disruption could spark a near-term correction, though they stop short of calling for a full bear market. In other words: volatility without the apocalypse. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • EMBRAER AIR-ADR (EMBJ) - Friday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Apple, Inc (AAPL), Accenture plc (ACN), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)

Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO), Arm Holdings plc - American De (ARM),
American Express Company (AXP), Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)

Deere & Company (DE), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Estree Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL),
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)

Expedia, Inc. (EXPE), Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc (J), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX),
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Cloudflare, Inc. (NET), Direxion Daily Gold Miners (NUGT), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA),
S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu (TSM), Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Accenture plc (ACN),
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Your objective should always be to buy exactly at the right time.

William O'Neil

Why It Matters:

Every trader hears this and nods… right before realizing the obvious problem: no one actually knows the exact right time.

The market doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It doesn’t send you a calendar invite for the breakout. And it certainly doesn’t wait politely while you double-check your indicators.

The real lesson behind the quote isn’t perfection — it’s precision.

Good traders don’t chase price after it’s already moved. They wait for levels, confirmation, and timing to line up. Support holds. Momentum shifts. Volume expands. Then they act.

Because while you may never buy exactly at the right time…

The closer you get to it, the less risk you need to take — and the more the market does the heavy lifting for you.