The Trading Post | 03.10.26

Good morning,

Wall Street is trying to claw back some dignity as futures rise on hopes the Middle East mess cools off, oil backs away from its panic peak, tech and AI names retake leadership, and traders wrestle with the same old question: is this a buyable dip or just a prettier trap.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.09.26 market close.

Market News

• Wall St futures climb on hopes for early end to Middle East conflict, oil backs off peak, and tech leads rebound as investors rotate back into beta: For index futures, look for long setups in S&P and Nasdaq on shallow pullbacks toward overnight support with stops under premarket higher lows. In single names, prioritize liquid mega-cap tech and semis on upside opening-range breaks, but pay yourself into prior resistance because ceasefire headlines can reverse this circus fast. Reuters

• Dow and S&P snap back from last week’s rout as Trump says the Iran war “may soon be over,” while energy lags despite the earlier oil spike: Momentum traders can lean into relative strength with long DIA or QQQ against weak oil beta and XLE if crude keeps rolling over. Use yesterday’s swing lows on the Dow and S&P as the line in the sand for trend-continuation longs, because if those crack, the rebound story gets awkward in a hurry. CNBC

• S&P 500 bounces but still sits roughly 1% below pre-war levels as volatility keeps whipping traders around: This is still a range-trader’s market until proven otherwise. Map the extremes, respect VWAP, and stop pretending the middle of the range is a personality trait. Options traders can sell premium with short-dated iron condors if implied vol stays rich and realized vol calms down, or buy premium if intraday ranges start expanding again. CNBC

• Tech outperforms with nine S&P sectors green, led by growth and AI plays, while valuation warnings get louder as the CAPE ratio hovers near dot-com territory: Day traders can keep stalking large-cap AI and chip leaders for continuation, but this is not the spot to fall in love with your runners. Swing traders should stay selective, focus on pullbacks to rising 20- and 50-day moving averages, and consider collars or staggered profit-taking on extended names because valuation gravity eventually remembers it exists. Yahoo Finance

• Macro risk is still running the show as oil swings, rate-cut expectations wobble, and strategists warn high valuations may cap longer-run returns: Treat CPI, Fed speakers, and war headlines as timing catalysts, not decoration. Reduce size into major events, let the first spike set new intraday levels, then re-engage once the market stops flailing. Position traders can keep core exposure through SPY or ES while layering tactical hedges like put spreads or short MES against long stock into key releases. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• United Natural Foods, Inc.  (UNFI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Oracle Corp.  (ORCL) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This quote is a polite way of saying most traders confuse activity with progress. The more you poke, tweak, chase, hedge, revenge-trade, and “stay busy,” the more your returns tend to leak out through a thousand tiny paper cuts. Motion feels productive. Usually it’s just expensive.

In trading, the best setups often come from patience, not constant participation. The market doesn’t pay you for effort. It pays you for timing, discipline, and the rare ability to sit on your hands while everyone else is lighting commissions on fire. More buttons clicked does not equal more edge. Sometimes it just means you found a faster way to be wrong.

It also fits the current market perfectly. When headlines are flying, oil is whipping around, and every candle looks like it drank three espressos, the temptation is to overmanage everything. But that’s usually where returns go to die. Clean setups, defined risk, fewer decisions. Less motion. Better odds.