The Trading Post | 03.11.26

March 11, 2026

Good morning,

Oil is back above $90 as the Iran war premium creeps back into the tape, CPI has traders gripping their coffee a little tighter, tech is still trying to lead the rebound, options traders are pricing in larger intraday swings, and bulls are already eyeing fresh S&P highs because, apparently, geopolitical risk is just a character-building exercise.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.10.26 market close.

Market News

  • Oil jumps back above $90 as war premium rebuilds: Energy is back in play, so watch XLE, XOP, and CL for opening range breakouts above yesterday’s highs. If price loses prior-day VWAP, the breakout crowd may get humbled quickly. CNBC

  • CPI takes center stage as yields rise and Fed-cut hopes wobble: ES, NQ, and YM could all turn into pinball machines around the print. Best setup is usually post-data confirmation, not heroic guessing five minutes early. CNBC

  • Dip buyers keep defending support while tech tries to lead again: QQQ and the mega-cap generals still matter most. Use yesterday’s lows as the risk line and favor pullbacks into the 8/21 EMA with volume confirmation instead of chasing green candles like an amateur intern on espresso. CNBC

  • Options traders are bracing for wider ranges in indexes and energy: Short-dated premium is active, which means movement matters more than opinions. Defined-risk setups make sense into the event, while premium sellers are probably better off waiting until after the CPI fireworks. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Campbell Soup Co.  (CPB) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.  (WOOF) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Broadcom, Inc (AVGO),
Credicorp Ltd. (BAP)

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE), Cadence Design Systems, Inc (CDNS), C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc (CHRW), Dollar Tree, Inc (DLTR)

e.l.f Beauty, Inc (ELF), Elastic N.V. (ESTC), Goldman Sachs Group. Inc (GS), Home Depot, Inc (HD)

Lemonade, Inc (LMND), Cheniere Energy, Inc. Common (LNG), MongoDB, Inc (MDB),
3M Company (MMM)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), Sea Limited (SE), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Constellation Brands, Inc (STZ)

WW International Inc (WTW), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends.

Anonymous

Why It Matters:

That’s trader poetry for “don’t get married to momentum.” Trends can be beautiful, profitable, and absurdly obvious right up until they suddenly become expensive life lessons. The same move that rewarded patience on the way up can punish complacency on the turn. Markets love doing that. They build confidence first, then send the invoice later.

For traders, the real message is that strength deserves respect, but exhaustion deserves even more. A clean uptrend can keep going far longer than seems reasonable, but once momentum fades, volume shifts, and price starts failing at obvious continuation levels, the “friend” part of the relationship gets very conditional. The bend is where breakout chasers become bag holders and late shorts get squeezed into bad decisions. Classic market romance: thrilling at first, financially weird by the end.

In trading terms, this quote is a reminder to ride trends with discipline, not blind faith. Follow the move while it’s healthy, but watch for lower highs, failed breakouts, loss of EMA support, or sharp reversals near extended levels. Because trends don’t send a breakup text. They just roll over and let stubborn traders figure it out in real time.

If you want, I can also turn this into a shorter, punchier version that better matches your newsletter voice.