The Trading Post | 03.12.26

March 12, 2026

Good morning,

Oil is back near $100, Wall Street futures are slipping as Middle East tensions keep traders on edge, Trump is trying to jawbone crude lower with emergency reserve talk, Bumble is ripping on an AI-fueled turnaround pitch, and today’s tape is packed with earnings and macro catalysts that could make the open a little less civilized.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.11.26 market close.

Market News

  • Oil spikes back to $100 as Middle East tensions hit Wall Street futures: U.S. stock index futures are under pressure as crude jumps back toward $100, dragging inflation worries and rate-cut doubt right back onto the table. Rotation likely stays with energy while small caps and high-beta growth get treated like they said something stupid. Reuters

  • Trump leans on emergency oil release but markets stay volatile: The White House is trying the verbal fire extinguisher again, but crude still closed sharply higher and the market clearly wants proof, not press conference energy. Any hard drop in oil that holds support could reverse fast, so don’t confuse a headline dip with actual trend change. Yahoo Finance

  • Bumble explodes higher on AI-driven turnaround hype: Bumble is up big pre-market after a Q4 beat and a fresh AI makeover pitch, because apparently every struggling app now gets one free “AI” rebrand before the market asks harder questions. Strong momentum could fuel an opening range breakout, but failed extensions and late-day exhaustion are very much on the menu. Yahoo Finance

  • Earnings radar lights up with DG, DKS, ADBE, and ULTA in focus: Today’s lineup gives traders plenty of single-name volatility, with retail, software, and beauty all taking a turn in the earnings confessional. Best approach is simple: let the first 15 to 30 minutes show the hand, then trade the reaction instead of auditioning for smartest person in the room. CNBC

  • Tech still shows relative strength while broader indices wobble: Even with oil shock and macro nerves back in the driver’s seat, Nasdaq leadership has held up better than the Dow, which is not nothing. Watch NQ versus YM and ES for relative strength tells, especially if AI and infrastructure names keep buying dips while cyclicals continue eating drywall. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • DICKS'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Dollar General Corporation (DG) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Adobe Inc.  (ADBE) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Lennar Corp.  (LEN) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • ULTA Beauty (ULTA) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), American Express Company (AXP), Boeing Company (BA),
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), Bunge Limited (BG), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS), C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc (CRWD), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL),
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)

Elastic N.V. (ESTC), First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG),
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM)

Kkr (KKR), Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS), Lennar Corporation (LEN), Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)

3M Company (MMM), Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Reddit, Inc. Class A Common (RDDT), S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL)

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), American Express Company (AXP)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

That quote sounds brilliant right up until someone uses it as an excuse to load half their account into one shiny disaster with a great story and a terrible chart. Buffett’s point is not that concentration is automatically smart. It’s that real conviction should come from actual understanding, not caffeine, confidence, and three bullish posts on X.

In trading, this hits a little differently. Most people are not under-diversified because they’re experts. They’re under-diversified because they’re bored. There’s a difference. If you truly know your setup, your risk, your time frame, and exactly where you’re wrong, concentration can make sense. But if “I know what I’m doing” really means “this one feels good,” congratulations—you’ve just rebranded ignorance as conviction. The market usually corrects that kind of arrogance with impressive efficiency.