The Trading Post | 03.13.26

Good morning,

Oil is back above $100 as war jitters keep traders jumpy, CPI stayed sticky enough to keep Fed-cut fantasies in the penalty box, indexes are wobbling again after the recent rebound, Oracle and Adobe kept growth traders glued to the tape, and money continues rotating into energy and defense while high-beta tech gets treated like a bad idea with a fresh haircut.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.12.26 market close.

Market News

• Oil spike keeps traders on edge: Stocks extended their slide as the Iran war pushed Brent above $100, the dollar firmed, and traders rotated back into defense. Day traders should expect elevated volatility and momentum bursts in energy and aerospace, while swing traders can keep stalking relative-strength longs in oil and defense against weaker, expensive growth names. Youtube.com

• CPI keeps the Fed frozen in place: February CPI rose 0.3% and held at 2.4% year over year, which is close enough to progress to sound encouraging and far enough from target to keep cuts parked. Intraday traders should respect possible whipsaws around Fed chatter, while swing traders may favor financials and value over rate-sensitive growth if yields keep grinding higher. Invezz.com

• The rebound is losing oxygen: After the sharp bounce earlier this month, U.S. stocks are back under pressure as war headlines shove the recent rebound off center stage. For active traders, early-March swing highs can act as resistance for short scalps, while this week’s lows remain the line in the sand for any cleaner breakdown continuation. Yahoo Finance

• Oracle and Adobe keep growth on trial: Traders were watching ORCL and ADBE closely as earnings season gave software and growth traders another referendum on institutional risk appetite. Post-earnings gaps remain prime for opening-drive setups, gap fades, or continuation plays, while swing traders can use strong volume reactions to justify defined-risk call spreads instead of cannonballing into stock. Tipranks

• Sector rotation is doing sector rotation things: Energy and defense kept attracting flows as crude rallied and safe-haven demand picked up, while high-beta tech and small caps lagged behind. Intraday, relative-strength pairs like long XLE versus short QQQ stay in play when oil and VIX both lift; on the swing side, crude holding above $100 could keep bull flags alive in energy while failed tech bounces remain suspicious until proven otherwise. Yahoo Finance

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That line should be tattooed on the forehead of every trader who starts explaining why valuation suddenly does not matter, why risk suddenly does not count, or why this latest rip in some overcaffeinated corner of the market is actually a brand-new law of physics. It usually is not different. It is usually the same old cocktail of greed, narrative, leverage, and selective memory poured into a shinier glass. In trading, those four words are expensive because they seduce people into abandoning process right when discipline matters most. They justify chasing extended moves, ignoring failed setups, averaging into losers, and pretending the market owes your thesis a sequel. Sometimes the story really does change. Most of the time, it is just human nature putting on a fresh wig. The bill arrives later.