The Trading Post | 03.18.26

March 18, 2026

Good morning,

Fed day volatility is locked in, AI names refuse to roll over, oil keeps inflation sticky, markets are holding up better than they probably should, and today’s tape revolves around Powell, PPI, and earnings landmines.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.17.26 market close.

Market News

  • Fed Holds Rates, Traders Abandon 2026 Cuts: Expect peak volatility between 2:00–2:30pm ET—first move is usually wrong, second move pays. Yahoo Finance

  • Yields Drive Rotation (Again): If the 10Y breaks higher, growth gets sold and financials catch a bid—same playbook, different day. Kiplinger

  • AI Trade Still the Market’s Crutch: NVDA strength vs weak tape = green light for relative strength longs or pairs vs QQQ. CNBC

  • Semis = Momentum Battlefield: Break-and-retest setups in NVDA/MU/SMH work—until they don’t (aka Fed surprise). Reuters

  • Oil Keeps Inflation Sticky: As long as crude stays bid, “higher-for-longer” isn’t a narrative—it’s reality. CNBC

  • Energy vs Tech Rotation Still Alive: XLE/XLU strength vs XLK = defensive posture creeping in. CNBC

  • S&P Hanging Near Highs (Barely): Failed breakdowns = squeeze fuel… clean breaks = trend days lower. Pick your poison. CNBC

  • Volatility Is a Feature, Not a Bug: VIX spikes + price holds = premium selling environment. VIX spikes + breakdown = not your friend. CNBC

  • Earnings Movers in Play (MU, GIS, WSM, M): Focus on gap-and-go or gap-and-fade—no middle ground trades here. WSJ

  • Two-Move Fed Pattern in Play: Initial algo spike → fake direction → real move. If you chase the first move… congrats on your donation. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • General Mills, Inc.  (GIS) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Hello Group Inc.  (MOMO) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Macy's, Inc. (M) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) - Wednesday (BMO) 

  • Five Below, Inc.  (FIVE) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Micron Technology, Inc.  (MU) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Amtek, Inc. (AME), Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO),
Broadcom, Inc (AVGO)

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS), Constellation Energy Corp (CEG), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

Expedia, Inc. (EXPE), Fortress Transportation & Infr (FTAI), Lennar Corporation (LEN),
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)

Meta Platforms Inc (META), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Philip Morris International (PM),
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)

Seagate Technology (STX), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV),
Tesla Mothers, Inc. (TSLA)

Texas Instruments Incorported (TXN), AMTEK, Inc. (AME), Amgen Inc (AMGN),
Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO)


Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Courage is the discovery that you may not win, and trying when you know you can lose.

Tom Krause

Why It Matters:

The amateurs are waiting for certainty. The perfect setup. The “can’t lose” trade (which, ironically, is usually the one that nukes them).

The pros? They already know the outcome is uncertain. They’re not trading because they know—they’re trading because the risk/reward is skewed in their favor.

That’s the whole game.

Courage in trading isn’t YOLO’ing into a breakout or doubling down on a loser. That’s just emotional damage in progress.

Real courage is:

  • Taking the setup even after your last trade lost

  • Sticking to your plan when the market starts shaking you out

  • Accepting the loss without revenge trading like a maniac

Because here’s the uncomfortable truth:

You can do everything right… and still lose.

And if you can’t handle that reality, you’ll hesitate on winners, cut them early, and let losers run—aka the holy trinity of blowing up an account.

So courage isn’t about being fearless.
It’s about being process-driven in a game where outcomes are random in the short term.

Take the trade. Respect the risk. Move on.

Rinse. Repeat.