The Trading Post | 03.23.26

March 23, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are higher after Trump postponed Iran strikes, oil backed off the panic highs, and traders are trying to squeeze a bounce out of a market that just printed its lowest close in more than six months. The Fed is still stuck in wait-and-see mode, fear remains fully caffeinated, and energy, defense, AI, and a few ugly-duckling retail names are all fighting for attention. In other words: the tape is alive, unstable, and probably one headline away from changing its mind.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.22.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures bounce as Iran strike delay cools oil panic: Dow futures ripped higher after Trump postponed Iran strikes, oil slipped off recent highs, and the S&P 500 tried to rebound after its weakest close in more than six months. High-volatility mean-reversion day setup here, so watch for gap-and-fade or gap-and-go behavior in ES, NQ, and YM around overnight levels and Friday’s low, with VIX pops as your intraday lie detector. CNBC

  • Fed stays put, uncertainty stays loud: The Fed held rates steady but flagged the uncertain market impact from the Iran conflict, which is another way of saying nobody wants to make bold promises while crude is freelancing. Watch 2Y/10Y yields and ZN/ZB for continuation; lower yields can fuel oversold bounces in tech and growth, but failed pushes into the 20-day and 50-day moving averages still lean short. CNBC

  • Fourth straight red week leaves breadth washed out: Stocks just logged a fourth consecutive losing week, the Nasdaq is nearly 10% off its highs, and fear gauges are now screaming what price already told you. Screen for liquid leaders losing the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on expanding volume for continuation shorts, while also marking prior support for the inevitable face-ripping oversold bounce. Trading Economics

  • Energy and defense still own the geopolitical trade: Even with WTI off the spike highs, Iran tension is keeping a geopolitical bid under crude, which keeps energy and defense names squarely on deck. Look for bull flags and intraday pullback buys in XLE, XOP, and major defense contractors near rising 10-EMA and 21-EMA zones, with CL futures as the main confirmation trigger. Al Jazeera 

  • ROK wakes up, WBA tests the line in the sand: Rockwell Automation is catching a pre-market AI/industrial automation bid, while Walgreens is poking at a key moving-average test after getting left for dead. For ROK, a clean break-and-hold above pre-market resistance and recent swing highs opens the door for momentum longs; for WBA, the 50-day is the decision point for either a rejection short or a reclaim-and-hold long with tight risk. Meyka

Trade Ideas

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Aon Corporation (AON), AstraZeneca PLC Ordinary Share (AZN)

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), FedEx Corporation (FDX), Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU),
Generac Holdings, Inc. (GNRC)

IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW),
3M Company (MMM)

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI), NRG Energy, Inc (NRG), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA),
Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY)

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK), Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG), TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

That’s a nice way of saying cheap junk is still junk. Traders and investors both learn this eventually, usually right after buying some “undervalued” garbage with a heroic chart and the financial stability of a folding chair.

In markets like this, the quote matters even more. When volatility spikes and fear starts throwing furniture, quality tends to hold up better than the bargain-bin names everyone suddenly pretends were “mispriced opportunities.” Strong companies with real earnings, institutional sponsorship, and clean relative strength can recover. Weak companies sold at a discount often just stay discounted. Forever, if the market is feeling charitable.

For traders, the lesson is simple: don’t confuse a stock being down a lot with it being attractive. A broken chart attached to a mediocre business is not a value play. It’s often just a slower-motion disappointment. If you’re going bargain hunting, at least make sure the thing you’re buying deserves to survive the next round of market nonsense.

Translation: quality first, price second. Because buying trash on clearance is still buying trash — just with better storytelling.