The Trading Post | 03.30.26

Good morning,

Futures are trying to claw back a pulse after five straight down weeks, crude is still elevated thanks to Iran headlines, tech remains stuck in correction-land, small caps are still waving a caution flag nobody wants to read and rates plus dollar traders are already lurking ahead of this week’s data.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.27.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures try to bounce after five straight down weeks: Traders are eyeing a holiday-shortened mean-reversion setup in the indices, which is great in theory until the first rally gets sold like expired merchandise. Watch for gap-up, fade-the-rip setups in QQQ and high-beta tech if the open stalls near declining 10/21-day moving averages; a strong reclaim of last week’s lows that holds through the first hour could trigger a short-covering squeeze in ES and NQ futures. IBTimes

• Iran conflict headlines keep crude elevated: Energy stays hot while broader risk trades remain jumpy, because nothing says “healthy market backdrop” like oil refusing to calm down. Use USO, CL futures, and liquid large-cap oils like XOM, CVX, and XLE for trend-following breakouts on pullbacks to rising short-term averages; if VIX stays bid, look for failed bounces in IWM and transports as short-scalp candidates. CNBC

• Tech sits in correction territory: Traders are deciding whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or the part where everyone finally admits the trend may actually be broken. Focus on QQQ and mega-cap leaders around prior swing lows and 200-day levels; reversal candles plus expanding volume can support swing longs, while weak bounces into broken support set up cleaner reload spots for puts or defined-risk bearish spreads. Investopedia

• Small caps and cyclical risk proxies continue to lag: Breadth is still flashing caution even as index futures firm pre-market, which is usually not the kind of divergence you frame and hang on the wall. Track IWM versus SPY on relative-strength ratios; if small caps keep underperforming on green index days, favor short setups in weaker low-liquidity names and stay skeptical of failed index breakouts. Meyka

• Dollar and rates traders brace for data later this week: Macro-sensitive sectors remain on a short leash as yields and the dollar keep acting like hall monitors for growth stocks. Use TLT, ZB, and DXY proxies like UUP as macro tells; if yields press back toward recent highs, continuation shorts in rate-sensitive tech and REITs stay in play, while a downside surprise in yields could support quick momentum longs in growth. Fred

Earnings We’re Watching

• Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) - Monday (AMC) 

• ARKO Corp. (ARKO) - Monday (AMC) 

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That’s the part most traders try to negotiate with, as if the market is supposed to reward effort, good intentions, or a really convincing thesis. It doesn’t. Losses are tuition. They expose sloppy entries, oversized positions, weak conviction, and the timeless classic of confusing hope with a strategy. The traders who survive aren’t the ones who avoid losing altogether; they’re the ones who take the hit, keep the damage small, and come back less stupid than before. In markets, being tested is inevitable. Failing the test repeatedly with size, now that’s the expensive hobby.