The Trading Post | 03.31.26

March 31, 2026

Good morning,

The S&P 500 is limping toward its worst quarter since 2022, futures are trying to bounce on Middle East de-escalation hopes and month-end flows, Treasury yields are slipping as traders dial back Fed hike fears, oil and volatility are still running the show, and this morning’s JOLTS and consumer confidence data could easily turn the open into a small crime scene.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.30.26 market close.

Market News

  • S&P Tries to Bounce, But the Quarter Still Looks Like a Mugging: The S&P 500 is headed for its worst quarter since 2022 as Iran war fears and rate concerns keep pressure on risk assets, even with futures catching a small lift on ceasefire hopes and quarter-end positioning. Reuters

  • Yields Slip as Fed Panic Cools Off a Bit: Treasury yields are easing as traders walk back aggressive Fed hike bets ahead of JOLTS and consumer confidence, keeping curve steepener trades and rate-sensitive sectors in focus. CNBC

  • Volatility Is Still Very Much Invited to the Party: War headlines, oil swings, and tech weakness are keeping the VIX elevated as Wall Street flirts with correction territory and quarter-end de-risking. CNBC

  • 10 a.m. ET Could Be the Real Open: JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence hit at 10:00 a.m. ET, setting up a likely inflection point for index futures, the dollar, and rate-sensitive groups. CNBC

  • Green Futures, Bruised Tape: Wall Street futures are higher on Mideast de-escalation hopes, but March is still shaping up as a rough one for U.S. equities, so treat early strength like it owes you money before trusting it. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • TD SYNNEX (SNX) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) - Tuesday (AMC) 

  • Nike Inc (NKE) - Tuesday (AMC) 

  • PVH Corp. (PVH) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Bunge Limited (BG)

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW),
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

Entegris, Inc. (ENTG), Jacobs Engineering Group Inc (J), Lemonade, Inc. (LMN),
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW)

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), lululemon athletica inc. (LULU), Cloudflare, Inc. (NET),
Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK)

Sypnosys, Inc. (SNPS), TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX), Tapestry, Inc. (TPR),
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.

Paul Samuelson

Why It Matters:

That quote is basically Warren Buffett reminding everyone that real investing is supposed to feel boring. Slow. Uneventful. Almost offensively dull. Which, of course, is exactly why so many people ignore it and go hunting for adrenaline instead.

In markets, excitement is usually just volatility wearing too much cologne. The more desperate someone is to feel something, the more likely they are to overtrade, chase garbage, size too big, and confuse action with skill. That works right up until the market reaches into their account and collects the entertainment fee.

The bigger point is that consistency rarely feels cinematic. Good investing often looks like patience, discipline, and doing a whole lot of nothing while weaker hands light money on fire trying to manufacture opportunity. Watching paint dry is not sexy, but neither is explaining to yourself why you bought a breakout five minutes before it became a rug pull.

Vegas at least has the decency to call it gambling. The market lets people pretend it’s strategy.