The Trading Post | 04.01.26

Good morning,

Futures are extending the rally as hopes of Iran de-escalation keep risk appetite alive, traders are still leaning toward at least one 2026 Fed cut, chip names and mega-cap tech keep dragging the tape back toward records, financials are trailing the broader market again, and oil is suddenly one ceasefire headline away from losing its main character energy.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 03.31.26 market close.

Market News

• Stocks rebound after their worst month since 2022: Today’s bounce favors buy-the-dip setups in SPY, QQQ, and IWM above yesterday’s highs, but with headline risk from geopolitics and tariffs still floating around like a bad smell, extended rips into resistance are still fade-worthy rather than marriage material. CNBC

• Nike pops on an earnings beat, but guidance keeps the leash short: If NKE loses its opening range high or slips below VWAP after the initial excitement, failed-breakout or gap-fill shorts are in play; if it holds the gap and stacks higher lows, the cleaner trade is a trend-day long into the pre-gap supply zone. CNBC

• The broadening trade keeps whispering that tech may not get all the attention forever: Relative-strength screens still favor industrials, financials, and energy over QQQ, so long-cyclicals/short-rich-tech pair trades stay interesting, and intraday pullbacks to short moving averages or prior-day highs remain the lower-risk add zones while momentum is intact. CNBC

• Volatility stays sticky as geopolitical and tariff risk cap upside conviction: Elevated event risk still favors defined-risk premium selling against core directional ideas instead of naked hero trades, and if VIX products spike at the open on fresh fear, mean-reversion shorts are fine—just don’t get cute and overstay when headlines can hit at any moment. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) - Wednesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That quote is basically the market’s version of eating your vegetables: boring, repetitive, and annoyingly correct. Everyone wants trading to be about big wins, perfect entries, and dramatic victory-lap screenshots. In reality, survival is the real flex. The traders who last are usually the ones who know how to get out fast when they’re wrong, instead of sitting there “believing in the setup” while their P&L gets taken out back.

It also cuts straight through one of the dumbest habits in trading: treating losses like personal insults. A small loss is not failure. It’s tuition. A large loss is what happens when ego grabs the steering wheel. Markets don’t care how confident you were, how pretty the pattern looked, or how many times you told yourself it would bounce.

For active traders, this is the whole game. You do not need to be right all the time. You need to avoid letting one bad trade turn into a full-blown financial crime scene. Cut losses early, preserve capital, stay mentally clear, and live to take the next high-quality setup. That’s not sexy. It’s just how professionals avoid becoming motivational quotes for someone else.