The Trading Post | 04.07.25

April 07, 2026

Good morning,

US index futures are leaning modestly higher, crude is still hanging around like an uninvited macro guest, semis and megacaps remain the market’s emotional support animals, sentiment is cautious-but-not-broken, and Levi Strauss earnings could offer one more read on the consumer.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.06.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Drift Higher Ahead Of A Light Calendar And LEVI After The Bell: Looks like a range-first, conviction-later kind of session. For ES/NQ, map the overnight high and low and let price prove it deserves trend status before you start swinging like it’s Fed day. Business Insider

  • Crude Holds The Bid As Middle East Tensions Keep Energy Traders On Edge: Energy still has the cleanest momentum tape, but elevated headlines can turn continuation into whiplash in a hurry. Watch CL, XLE, and OIH for either expansion through prior highs or a rejection setup right into the regular session open. Reuters

  • Sentiment Stays Cautious, But The Credit Tape Isn’t Screaming Disaster: The mood is still defensive, just not apocalyptic, which leaves room for mean-reversion trades instead of full-blown panic chasing. If SPY or IWM gap too far on vibes alone, fading the emotional move back toward prior value can make more sense than joining the stampede late. Reuters

  • Levi Strauss Earnings Put Retail Back On The Radar: LEVI is the kind of post-close report that can move more than the stock itself if the commentary hits discretionary demand, margins, or consumer resilience. Treat it like an event ticker, define the pre-earnings range, and use XRT as the sympathy read-through once the dust starts flying. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Bunge Limited (BG),
CIGNA Corporation (CI)

Celestica, Inc. (CLS), IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE), ICON plc (ICLR),
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM)

Kratos Defense & Security Solution (KTOS), MongoDB, Inc. (MDB), Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Direxion Tech Bull 3x Shares (TECL), Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI),
Vistra Energy Corp. (VST)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.

Jim Cramer

Why It Matters:

That line lands because every trader has lived it. A stock misses earnings and rallies. A dumpster-fire company squeezes 22% because somebody on the internet found a rocket emoji. The market, in its infinite wisdom, occasionally behaves like a caffeinated toddler with access to derivatives.

But that is also the lesson. The market does not owe you logic on your timeline. It can stay irrational longer than your patience, your thesis, and definitely longer than your out-of-the-money options. The pros survive those moments not by arguing with the tape like it insulted their family, but by respecting price, managing risk, and accepting that “this makes no sense” is not technically a sell signal.

Sometimes the smartest move is not to decode the stupidity. It is to recognize it, size down, and stop trying to force brilliance onto a market that is clearly in one of its moods. Because in trading, breathless disbelief is fine. Leaving your stop out there to die because you wanted the market to be reasonable? That is how stupidity spreads.