The Trading Post | 04.09.26

Good morning,

Fed minutes kept 2026 cuts alive while reminding everyone inflation still bites, Iran ceasefire chatter lit a fire under risk assets, the S&P staged one of those rare breadth-thrust face-rippers back above key moving averages, Google’s AI edge got another upgrade thanks to custom chips, and the so-called TACO trade is still paying traders who respect the headline roulette wheel.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 04.08.26 market close.

Market News

• Fed minutes keep 2026 cut hopes alive, but policymakers stay “nimble” as inflation and geopolitics keep the tape twitchy: After a 2.5%+ squeeze, ES and NQ traders should watch yesterday’s breakout levels closely. If real yields push higher, fading strength into resistance makes sense. For options, short-dated call spreads on SPX or QQQ make more sense than naked upside heroics. Rate-sensitive groups like regional banks, homebuilders, and utilities are worth stalking around VWAP for either continuation or the classic fake-out-and-fail. CNBC 

• Iran ceasefire optimism sparks a classic risk-on rotation into tech, financials, and industrials: NQ and RTY both look set up for continuation if buyers defend prior day highs and lows. In options, staggered call flies or diagonals can lean bullish while respecting the inevitable volatility crush. On the stock side, the names that led Wednesday’s charge, especially mega-cap tech, brokers, and exchange names, become buy-the-dip candidates on orderly pullbacks. Because apparently traders do forgive and forget when the headlines cooperate. CNBC

• The S&P 500 just reclaimed key moving averages in a rare breadth surge, and history says bulls usually get a few more cookies: Treat those reclaimed levels as the line in the sand. Above them, pullbacks favor long setups. Lose them, and the failed-breakout short comes right back into play. Swing traders can use 2-to-4 week call spreads or put credit spreads to express the bullish skew without pretending uncertainty stopped existing. Stock traders should screen for liquid leaders making fresh highs on strong volume, especially those that never really cracked below the 50-day in the first place. MarketWatch

• Google’s AI moat gets wider as custom chips strengthen its compute edge and revive the earnings narrative: Mega-cap tech strength can keep the Nasdaq bid, and the NQ/RTY ratio is worth watching for relative-strength confirmation. In GOOGL or GOOG, defined-risk bullish structures like call spreads or put spreads make more sense near support than chasing extended pops like it’s still 2021. For active stock traders, any dip that holds a prior breakout level while outperforming XLK or QQQ is worth a look. MarketWatch

• The “TACO” macro trade keeps printing as tariff and Iran de-escalation headlines trigger some of the market’s biggest up-days: Translation: expect more headline-driven spikes in ES and NQ, and don’t marry any intraday move that was born from a politician with a microphone. Fading overextended moves back into opening-range levels can work when momentum stalls. In options, this tape favors defined-risk premium-selling structures like iron condors or butterflies around clean support and resistance. Stock traders should stay focused on liquid, headline-sensitive groups like semis, defense, energy, and shippers, and trade with the tape instead of trying to outsmart it. That usually ends well for exactly no one. MarketWatch

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That’s the part traders love to nod at and then immediately ignore by lunchtime. Everybody wants the monster move, but almost nobody wants the boredom, the patience, or the psychological torture of not fiddling with a good position every eleven seconds. The big money usually doesn’t come from being a market genius. It comes from being right, getting paid, and then having the discipline not to panic out, scalp yourself to death, or suddenly discover a burning urge to "lock in gains" five minutes too early.

In trading, sitting sounds passive, but it’s actually violent restraint. It means surviving the little pullbacks, the scary headlines, the random candle that exists purely to test your emotional stability, and the urge to mistake activity for skill. Because the market hands out participation trophies in the form of commissions and slippage, not profits. Livermore’s point is simple: once you’ve done the hard work of finding the right setup, the real challenge is not sabotaging it with your own cleverness.