The Trading Post | 04.10.26

April 10, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are flat to slightly green ahead of CPI, Iran ceasefire headlines still feel one bad tweet away from changing, oil is grinding higher, the Fed is still playing the patient card, mega-cap tech keeps dragging the Nasdaq upward, and earnings season is about to start judging everyone’s guidance.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.09.26 market close.

Market News

  • CPI has the market in a chokehold: Traders are mostly sitting on their hands into the 8:30 a.m. ET print, with futures stalling and volatility likely to wake up the second the number hits. The first move will probably be loud, emotional, and only sometimes correct. CNBC

  • Futures stall while ceasefire risk still hangs over everything: The Iran ceasefire remains fragile enough to keep risk premiums alive, especially in crude, which means markets are still pricing macro with one eye on geopolitics and the other on inflation. Finance Yahoo

  • The Fed is still in no-rush mode: Rates remain at 3.5%–3.75%, inflation is still described as “somewhat elevated,” and policymakers continue preaching patience, which is central-bank code for “stop trying to front-run us.” Federal Reserve

  • Oil keeps inflation anxiety nicely marinated: Hormuz jitters and fresh Trump threats toward Tehran have Brent flirting with $97, which is not exactly the kind of energy input the CPI doves were hoping for. WSJ

  • Tech keeps squeezing the pessimists: The Nasdaq is eyeing an eighth straight win as mega-cap names continue to lead, forcing shorts to reconsider their life choices right into a macro catalyst. Bloomberg

  • Earnings season is walking in with expectations already too high: Q1 profit forecasts for the S&P 500 are upbeat, which means the bar for guidance is elevated and management teams are about to discover that “pretty good” may not be good enough. Digrin

Trade Ideas

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), AMTEK Inc. (AME), Aon Corporation (AON),
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

Cameco Corporation (CCJ), Constellation Energy (CEG), C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Colliers International Group (CIGI)

Celestica, Inc. (CLS), CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), Lowe’s Companies (LOW)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), S&P 500 Bull 3x (SPXL), SPDR 500 ETF Trust (SPY),
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Vistra Energy Corp. (VST),
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Returns matter a lot, but not losing your balance sheet is what matters more.

Howard Marks

Why It Matters:

That’s the whole game, really. Everybody loves talking about upside when the market is green and their P&L screenshot starts looking LinkedIn-ready. But survival is the actual edge. Because the trader who keeps swinging wildly for maximum returns usually ends up discovering a far more reliable statistic: the speed at which bad risk management can turn confidence into archaeology.

In trading, staying solvent is not the boring part of the job. It is the job. Big returns are great, obviously. Very sexy. But they only matter if you’re still around to compound them. Blow up the account, torch the balance sheet, and suddenly your impressive win rate becomes a touching historical document.

Especially on a CPI day like this, the quote lands. Event-driven markets have a special talent for punishing oversized conviction. So yes, hunt the opportunity. Take the setup. But maybe do it in a way that doesn’t turn one hot print and one oil headline into an involuntary sabbatical from trading.