The Trading Post | 04.13.26

April 13, 2026

Good morning,

Oil is back above $100 after a fresh Hormuz scare, U.S. futures are leaning risk-off, yields are adding pressure to growth, AI names are still seeing sticky bullish flow under the surface, and TSLA is shaping up as the odd Mag 7 name out into earnings.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.10.26 market close.

Market News

  • Hormuz headline risk smacks futures: Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade order lit a fire under crude and knocked U.S. futures lower, which means energy strength and broad-market weakness are back on the menu. Not exactly the calm Monday open nobody asked for. CNBC

  • Oil back above $100: Brent’s sharp move higher puts XLE, XOP, CVX, and XOM in focus, while high-beta indices get the lovely gift of another inflation-flavored headwind. Bloomberg

  • Yields aren’t helping: Higher Treasury yields are piling onto the macro mess, which keeps pressure on long-duration growth and raises the odds of more intraday chop in tech. CNBC

  • Fear is up, but calls are still flying: The tape is nervous, but call-heavy options flow suggests traders still want upside exposure. Translation: expect dramatic headlines, fake breakdowns, and at least one move designed to mug late chasers. Reddit

  • AI names still have a bid underneath them: NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, and META all showed notable dark-pool buying and bullish options tone, which keeps them on the dip-buy watchlist unless the whole market rolls into trend-down mode. Reddit

  • TSLA isn’t reading from the same script: While the rest of the AI-heavy mega-cap crowd looks supported, TSLA is drawing bearish put activity ahead of April 22 earnings and continues to look like the relative-weakness candidate. Reddit

  • Banks may have to save the mood again: Strong early Q1 earnings from financials could help offset some of the oil panic, so keep big banks and brokers on watch for opening-range signals. CNBC

  • PPI tomorrow matters: March PPI hits Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, which means any shiny new swing trade opened today comes with built-in gap risk. Sleep well. BLS

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) - Monday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Aon Corporation (AON), Ares Management L.P. (ARES), Cameco Corporation (CCJ),
Colliers International Group (CIGI)

Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO), CoreWeave Inc (CRWV), Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM), Gartner Inc (IT), Cloudflare Inc (NET), NRG Energy Inc (NRG)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), GraniteShares 1.5x Long (NVDL), Onto Innovation (ONTO),
S&P 500 BULL 3X (SPXL)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Aon Corporation (AON)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.

Peter Lynch

Why It Matters:

That’s the whole game, really. Traders love to fantasize about home runs, but the market has a charming habit of bankrupting people who confuse aggression with skill. Big returns are great for screenshots. Staying solvent is what lets you come back tomorrow. In a tape full of geopolitical headline risk, oil spikes, and inflation landmines, the smartest trade is often the one that keeps your account from becoming a cautionary tale in someone else’s webinar.