The Trading Post | 04.16.26

April 16, 2026

Good morning,

QQQ ripped to fresh highs as AI megacaps kept the melt-up alive, TSLA stacked back-to-back 7% days on AI5 chip hype, AAPL caught a pre-earnings bid as traders gamed its April 30 setup, NVDA stretched its win streak into full absurdity with TSMC feeding the AI supercycle story, and strong bank earnings from BAC and MS still couldn’t steal the spotlight from tech.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.15.26 market close.

Market News

  • QQQ keeps making new highs: AI megacaps are still dragging the tape higher, TSLA is acting like gravity got delisted, and TSMC’s monster quarter gave the whole semiconductor trade another shot of espresso. For traders, watch for exhaustion gaps and failed breakouts in names like NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, and TSLA, while trend followers can keep treating orderly pullbacks toward the 10- and 21-day moving averages as buyable until proven otherwise. Reuters

  • Small caps are tagging along, for now: IWM is hanging near 52-week highs as AI infrastructure and energy names do the heavy lifting, while financials still look like the kid getting picked last in gym class. Relative strength still matters here, so stronger small-cap names in AI and energy themes look more attractive than weak regional banks trying to fake a bounce. Reuters

  • AAPL is getting the pre-earnings halo treatment: Shares jumped as traders leaned on bullish analyst calls, chip-supply optimism, and the usual “maybe this is the AI catalyst” storyline into the April 30 report. That makes the setup interesting, but also crowded, so this is one of those spots where you respect support and avoid marrying the narrative. Investing.com

  • NVDA is still the market’s favorite religion: Between TSMC’s guidance, fresh bullish coverage, and the expanding “platform” story beyond GPUs, the stock remains the poster child for momentum that nobody wants to stand in front of until it suddenly matters. Traders should keep the rising 21-day EMA and prior breakout zones on the chart because parabolic moves are fun right up until they remember what two-sided trade means.Reuters

  • Banks delivered, but tech still gets the applause: BAC and MS posted strong quarters, yet the market still treated them like the opening act before the real AI headliner. That does leave room for catch-up rotation trades if money starts flowing out of stretched tech and into quality financials that are holding post-earnings support. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Abbott (ABT) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Alcoa, Inc. (AA) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Apple Inc (AAPL), Bunge Limited (BG), Cameco Corporation (CCJ), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)

DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM)

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc (J), Direxion Junior Gold Min (JNUG), Kratos Defense & Security Solution (KTOS), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW)

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY), Sea Limited (SE)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Big winners rarely start out as big winners.

William O'Neil

Why It Matters:

That’s the market’s favorite little insult to human impatience. Most monster trades do not look glamorous at the beginning. They look early, annoying, overlooked, and occasionally stupid. The big move usually comes after the boredom, the shakeouts, and the part where weak hands donate their shares to people with functioning attention spans.

In trading, this matters because everyone wants the finished product. They want the breakout after the base, the trend after the turn, the winner after the proof. Very few people want to sit through the messy middle where conviction gets tested and the chart still looks like it needs therapy. Big winners rarely start out as big winners because leadership has to emerge before the crowd notices it. By the time it looks obvious, a lot of the easy money has already packed up and left.