The Trading Post | 04.17.26

April 17, 2026

Good morning,

Wall St futures are climbing on Middle East peace hopes, U.S. stocks are trying to stick the landing into the weekend, record highs are colliding with the early innings of earnings season, banks are reminding everyone volatility is apparently still a business model, and the market’s earnings optimism may be just a touch delusional. Shocking, I know.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.16.26 market close.

Market News

  • Wall St futures climb on Middle East peace hopes: Index futures are bid into the open as traders lean risk-on into ceasefire chatter, which means either we get a trend day or the market does what it does best and punishes the obvious trade. Reuters

  • Record highs are wading deeper into earnings season: Major indexes are hovering near highs while earnings season starts to matter, so expect single-stock landmines, sector rotation, and plenty of “great quarter, terrible reaction” nonsense. Reuters

  • Wall Street’s earnings fantasies may meet reality: There’s growing skepticism that current earnings expectations can actually survive macro risk, geopolitical noise, and valuations that already act like perfection is guaranteed. Cute. Reuters

  • Bank earnings show volatility is still paying someone: Trading desks and market-making businesses are still benefiting from elevated volatility, which helps explain why some financials have actual pulse while the broader market keeps pretending all risk is temporary. Reuters

  • The April rebound is getting stretched: Seasonality has helped, but after a sharp rebound and overbought conditions building, traders should watch for failed breakouts, gap fades, and the kind of rug pull that arrives right after everyone gets comfortable. MarketWatch

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Ally Financial (ALLY) - Friday (BMO) 

  • State Street Corp. (STT) - Friday (BMO) 

  • Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) - Friday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Aon Corporation (AON), Bunge Limited (BG), Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS),
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), IQVIA Holdings, Inc (IQV), Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG),
Kratos Defense & Security Solution (KTOS)

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI), Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), GraniteShares 1.5x Long (NVDL), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Roku, Inc. (ROKU)

SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC), Sea Limited (SE), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP),
WW International Inc (WTW)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Play the market only when all factors are in your favor.

Jesse Livermore

Why It Matters:

That sounds obvious until you remember most traders treat “all factors are in my favor” like “I kind of like this candle.” Livermore’s point is brutal and simple: you do not need to trade every twitch, every gap, every shiny headline, or every random breakout that looks good from across the room. You need your setup, your timing, your risk level, and the broader tape all rowing in the same direction.

In trading, forcing action when conditions are sloppy is how people donate money to the market and then call it tuition. The best trades usually feel almost boring at entry because the evidence is stacked, the risk is defined, and the trade is doing less guessing and more confirming. When everything lines up, press. When it doesn’t, sit on your hands and preserve capital like it’s a personality trait.

The market will be open again tomorrow. Your account should be too.