The Trading Post | 04.20.26

April 20, 2026

Good morning,

U.S. futures are softer as fresh Gulf tanker attacks dent risk appetite, Wall Street is pausing after a record run, big-cap tech is staring down geopolitical and rate jitters, earnings optimism is colliding with Middle East headline risk, and a firmer dollar is adding pressure to multinationals.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.17.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Slip On Fresh Geopolitical Stress: U.S. stock futures are lower Monday after new attacks on Gulf oil tankers rattled sentiment and revived the market’s favorite hobby: pretending headline risk is priced in. CNBC

  • Record Highs Meet A Reality Check: After a face-ripping rally to new highs, futures are red as traders weigh stretched valuations and a heavier earnings slate. Reuters

  • Tech Still Leads, But The Air Gets Thinner Up Here: Mega-cap tech remains near records, though stronger-dollar pressure, geopolitical noise, and rate chatter are making the tape a little less smug. CNBC

  • Earnings Optimism Runs Into Middle East Headlines: Early earnings strength helped fuel the melt-up, but traders now have to decide whether to keep buying dips or finally develop trust issues. Reuters

  • Dollar Rebound Adds Another Headwind: A firmer dollar and weaker European markets could pressure exporters and globally exposed U.S. names if risk-off flows stick. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) - Monday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO), AeroVironment (AVAV)

American Express Company (AXP), Bunge Limited (BG), CME Group Inc (CME),
Expeditors International (EXPD)

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL), IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV), Kratos Defense & Security Solution (KTOS), Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)

Lemonade Inc (LMND), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), 3M Company (MMM),
GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDL)

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), TTM Technologies (TTMI), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Money is made by sitting, not trading.

Jesse Livermore

Why It Matters:

This is the market’s least popular truth because it sounds like doing nothing, and most traders confuse motion with progress. The money usually isn’t made from constant clicking. It’s made from identifying the right setup, getting in well, and then having the discipline not to sabotage it out of boredom, fear, or the sudden urge to feel productive. Overtrading feels active, but patience is what usually gets paid. The market rewards conviction far more often than it rewards fidgeting.