The Trading Post | 04.23.26

April 23, 2026

Good morning,

Nasdaq and S&P just tagged fresh records, earnings beat rates are running hot enough to make expectations even dumber, Broadcom joined the trillion-dollar club, cannabis names lit up on reclassification chatter, and a few parabolic movers reminded traders that the elevator down still works.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.22.26 market close.

Market News

  • Indexes hit fresh highs, futures cool off into the open: Nasdaq and S&P are sitting at record levels, so today’s game is simple: gap-and-go continuation if buyers defend prior highs, or gap-and-fail if the opening push gets stuffed. Long above yesterday’s breakout levels, cautious if TICK and VOLD start rolling over. CNBC

  • Earnings beats keep piling up, but expectations are now wearing clown shoes: More than 80% of S&P reporters are beating, which is great until the market decides “good” is suddenly disappointing. Focus on post-earnings continuation setups, failed gap fills, and names that hold the first hour instead of immediately giving back the sugar rush. Reuters

  • AVGO joins the trillion-dollar club and AI trade sentiment stays fully caffeinated: Broadcom’s move keeps semis in focus, and AVGO now doubles as a live sentiment gauge for NVDA, AMD, and the rest of the silicon circus. Use AVGO’s breakout area and VWAP as intraday bull-bear lines rather than getting romantic about candles. MarketWatch

  • IBM, ServiceNow, and other high-expectation names wobble as guidance starts to matter again: When the bar is set on the moon, even decent numbers can get sold. Weak post-earnings reactions that lose overnight lows can set up clean mean-reversion shorts, especially if volume confirms the move instead of just whispering about it. MarketWatch

  • Cannabis stocks catch fire on marijuana reclassification chatter: This is momentum-land, not “safe investing for the grandchildren.” The best setups are in relative-strength names that hold breakout levels and flag near highs; the worst setups are the ones entered after a five-candle vertical move because FOMO suddenly became your portfolio manager. MarketWatch

  • Parabolic names flash the usual warning label: Avis got smoked after its run-up, and POET Technologies went full casino chip on hype. CAR looks like a failed-breakout short on bounces into broken support, while POET is firmly in lotto-ticket territory where defined risk stops being optional and starts being the whole job. MarketWatch

Earnings We’re Watching

  • American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • American Express Co. (AXP) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Blackstone (BX) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Honeywell International, Inc. (HON) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Lockhead Martin Corp. (LMT) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Nokia Corp. (NOK) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • PG&E Corp. (PCG) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Snap-On, Inc. (SNA) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Intel Corp. (INTC) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), Aon Corporation (AON),
Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO)

Ares Management L.P. (ARES), Arm Holdings plc (ARM), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA),
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE), Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI), Roku, Inc (ROKU)

SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL),
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG),
Arista Networks, Inc (ANET)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Returns matter a lot, but not losing your balance sheet is what matters more.

Howard Marks

Why It Matters:

That quote is the grown-up version of trading wisdom, which is probably why so many people ignore it. Everyone loves talking about returns when the market is going up and their account looks like a genius accidentally sat on the keyboard and made money. But returns only matter if you’re still around to enjoy them.

In trading, protecting the balance sheet is what keeps you in the game long enough to catch the real opportunities. A blown-up account has a 100% drawdown and exactly 0% chance of making a comeback without fresh capital and a bruised ego. Glamorous? No. Important? Very.

This is really a reminder that survival is a strategy. Risk management isn’t the boring part that gets in the way of profits — it’s the only reason profits are possible in the first place. Big wins are nice, but avoiding catastrophic losses is what gives those wins somewhere to land.

The market will always offer another setup, another trend, another breakout, another reason to believe this time it’s different. Your job is to make sure one bad trade, one bad week, or one bad bout of overconfidence doesn’t turn your account into a cautionary tale.

Because in the end, the traders who last are usually not the ones making the flashiest returns. They’re the ones who understood that preserving capital is not defensive — it’s professional.