The Trading Post | 04.24.26

Good morning,

Futures are edging higher as the extended U.S.–Iran ceasefire calms the geopolitical panic button, the S&P 500 is flirting with record highs while breadth quietly asks for a wellness check, earnings are separating the adults from the PowerPoint magicians, oil remains annoyingly important, and today’s U.S. data/Fed chatter could turn a quiet tape into a confetti cannon.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.23.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures edge higher as Trump extends the U.S.–Iran ceasefire: Risk-on tone gets a little breathing room, which favors opening-range breakouts in /ES and /NQ if they hold above Thursday’s Globex VWAP and prior-day highs. Just remember: geopolitical relief rallies can reverse faster than a trader pretending they “planned to scale out.” Investopedia

• S&P 500 sits near record highs, but breadth is lagging: Mega-cap tech and AI leaders remain the cleanest long candidates, especially on orderly pullbacks to the 10–21 EMA zone. Chasing new highs while participation thins is not illegal, just emotionally expensive. CNBC

• Real estate and rate-sensitive sectors stay weak: XLRE and similar laggards remain fade candidates on bounces into broken support or failed 20/50-day moving average retests. Relative strength still matters, because buying the weakest sector in a strong market is how traders discover character development. Investopedia

• Oil remains a major market tell: Energy names can stay in play if crude holds recent gains and /CL remains above the prior session midpoint, but watch for sudden reversals if ceasefire headlines improve. Long energy and short transports can work—until crude sneezes and both legs need therapy. Trading Economics

• Rate-sensitive stocks may stay under pressure if oil keeps inflation fears alive: Higher crude can keep yields firm and weigh on real estate, select financials, and richly valued growth names. If yields spike on hot data, growth-stock put spreads may get interesting. Kiplinger

• Today’s U.S. data and Fed-speak could stir the pot: Treat sentiment, inflation-related releases, and Fed commentary as volatility events around /ES, /NQ, and /YM levels. Flattening before the number and re-entering after the first fake-out is still wildly underrated. Trading Economics

• April’s choppiness continues to bully sloppy trades: Prioritize A+ setups at clean levels, not mid-range entries with “I have a feeling” risk management. The market does not owe us clarity; apparently it has other hobbies. Kiplinger

Earnings We’re Watching

• Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) - Friday (BMO)

• Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) - Friday (BMO)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This quote is brutally simple, which is probably why traders spend years trying to complicate it into a 47-tab spreadsheet with color-coded excuses.

Cutting losses is not glamorous. Nobody screenshots a stopped-out trade and frames it above the desk. But it is the rule that keeps you in the game long enough for your good trades to matter. A small loss is just tuition. A big loss is tuition, room, board, emotional damage, and possibly a strongly worded conversation with your spouse.

The market does not reward stubbornness. It rewards discipline, patience, and the ability to admit, “This trade is not doing what I needed it to do.” That sentence alone can save more money than the world’s fanciest indicator.

Every trader wants bigger winners. Fine. Great. Very motivational-poster of us. But bigger winners only matter if you stop letting losers grow up, move into the basement, and start eating your account balance.

In trading, being wrong is normal. Staying wrong is expensive.