The Trading Post | 04.29.26

Good morning,

U.S. futures are grinding higher into the Fed, earnings optimism is keeping buyers interested, AI leaders are wobbling after fresh valuation jitters, Seagate is popping on a strong report, and Robinhood is sliding after missing earnings because apparently retail speculation also has feelings.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.28.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures Lean Green Ahead of the Fed: U.S. equity futures are ticking higher as global markets rally on upbeat earnings, but with the Fed decision and Powell’s final meeting on deck, this is not exactly the morning to confuse “slightly green” with “risk-free vacation.” Watch ES, NQ, and YM for opening range breakouts — but respect VWAP fades if the first move gets too cute. CNBC

• Powell Exit Keeps Rates Risk Front And Center: Traders are expecting the Fed to hold steady, but sticky inflation and Powell’s exit keep rate-cut hopes under the microscope. Translation: the market wants certainty, and the Fed is bringing a fog machine. Let the first 15–30 minutes establish direction before chasing anything with a pulse. Reuters

• AI Names Catch A Valuation Headache: AI-heavy tech is wobbling after reports of an OpenAI revenue miss, pressuring Nasdaq futures and forcing traders to remember that “AI” is not technically a valuation metric. Watch QQQ and NQ for failed breakouts, lower highs, and resistance rejections in stretched mega-cap/semiconductor names. CNBC

• Earnings Gaps Are Still The Main Event: Seagate surged after beating expectations and issuing a stronger outlook, giving momentum traders another post-earnings gap to stalk. The setup is simple: if it holds pre-market gains and breaks the opening range high with volume, bulls get a shot; if it falls back into range, gravity may request a meeting. CNBC

• Robinhood Slides After A Miss: HOOD is dropping after missing earnings and revenue, putting retail trading activity and prediction-market enthusiasm back under the microscope. Use the pre-market low and VWAP as the decision zone: below it, gap-and-go shorts stay in play; back above it, prepare for the classic “bad news bounce” because markets enjoy emotional whiplash. CNBC

• Rates May Decide The Rotation: Watch financials, homebuilders, REITs, and growth tech for Fed-sensitive reactions. A hawkish read favors pressure on long-duration growth and rate-sensitive groups; a softer read could fuel another round of “everybody pretend valuations are normal” buying. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Biogen Inc. (BIIB) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Generac Holdings Inc (GNCR) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• General Dynamics Corp. (GD) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Humana, Inc. (HUM) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Phillips 66 (PSX) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• SoFi (SOFI) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• AFLAC, Inc. (AFL) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Allstate Corp. (ALL) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Amrize (AMRZ) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Antero Resources Corp (AR) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CHW) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Carvana Co. (CVNA) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• eBay, Inc. (EBAY) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Ford Motor Company (F) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Google (GOOG) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Service Corporation International (SCI) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Speculation is fascinating because it gives you constant feedback, endless opportunity, and just enough early luck to make people think they’re gifted. Which is adorable. Dangerous, but adorable.

Livermore’s point is that trading is not hard because the buy button is hidden behind a secret wall. It’s hard because the market is a live-fire test of judgment, discipline, emotional control, and whether you can resist doing something deeply stupid just because a five-minute candle looked inspiring.

The market does not care how badly you want a trade to work. It does not reward laziness, revenge trading, oversized positions, or the sacred retail ritual of turning “quick scalp” into “long-term thesis” after it immediately goes red. Speculation demands preparation before the trade, emotional balance during the trade, and enough humility after the trade to admit when the setup has failed.

The get-rich-quick crowd sees the market as a slot machine with candlesticks. The professional sees it as a probability game where survival is the first edge. Fascinating? Absolutely. Easy? Not even slightly. And that’s exactly why the market keeps collecting tuition from anyone who shows up underprepared and overconfident.