The Trading Post | 04.30.26

Good morning,

S&P 500 futures are under pressure after mixed Mag 7 earnings, Alphabet and Amazon showed cloud strength, Meta got slapped for another AI capex bonfire, the Fed held rates in a surprisingly messy 8-4 decision, Seagate and NXP ripped on AI infrastructure demand, and Robinhood stumbled as crypto trading cooled off. Subtle morning. Very normal. Nothing to see here.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 04.29.26 market close.

Market News

• Mag 7 earnings split the tape: S&P 500 futures fell after Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta gave traders a fresh reminder that “AI growth” and “AI spending” are apparently two very different religions. Alphabet rallied on cloud strength, Amazon beat on AWS and advertising, Microsoft’s Azure growth still wasn’t enough for the expectations police, and Meta dropped after raising capex guidance. Translation: AI is still the theme, but the market is getting pickier about who gets rewarded for lighting money on fire. CNBC

• Fed holds rates, but the vote gets spicy: The Fed kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% in an 8-4 decision, with four dissents marking the first such split since October 1992. Stephen Miran favored a cut, while three regional Fed presidents pushed toward signaling potential hikes. The 2-year Treasury jumped to 3.937%, which is bond-market speak for “please stop assuming cuts are guaranteed.” TheStreet

• Fed leadership uncertainty enters the chat: Powell’s final FOMC meeting is setting up a potentially messy leadership transition, with Kevin Warsh hinting at a “family fight” during confirmation chatter and markets now entertaining the idea of rate increases instead of cuts. Because apparently monetary policy needed more drama. TheStreet

• AI hardware names keep catching bids: Seagate surged 17% after strong Q3 results, while NXP Semiconductors jumped 19%, keeping the AI infrastructure trade alive beyond the usual mega-cap suspects. Data storage, chips, and hardware remain in play as traders hunt for the next shovel seller in the AI gold rush. YouTube

• Robinhood gets clipped as crypto activity fades: Robinhood fell more than 10% after missing Q1 expectations, with crypto trading fees dropping 47%. Retail crypto enthusiasm may not be dead, but it appears to be taking a nap on the couch with a half-eaten bag of chips. TheStreet

Earnings We’re Watching

• Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) - Thursday (BMO) 

• CIGNA Corp. (CI) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) - Thursday (BMO) 

• International Paper Co. (IP) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc. (LECO) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Mastercard Inc (MA) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) - Thursday (BMO) 

• SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Southern Company (SO) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Stellantis N.V. (STLA) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Trane Technologies plc (TT) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Wayfair Inc. (W) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Xerox Corp. (XRX) - Thursday (BMO) 

• XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Apple, Inc. (AAPL) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Clorox Co. (CLX) - Thursday (AMC) 

• DexCom Inc (DXCM) - Thursday (AMC) 

• First Solar Inc (FSLR) - Thursday (AMC) 

• GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Roblox Corporation (RBLX) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Roku Inc (ROKU) - Thursday (AMC) 

• SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Stryker Corp. (SYK) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Beautiful quote. Also the kind of quote that gets traders into trouble when they confuse “blood in the streets” with “my favorite stock is down 3% and I am emotionally wounded.”

The point isn’t to buy every dip like you’re rescuing orphaned candles. The point is that real opportunity usually shows up when fear has forced weak hands out, valuations have compressed, and the crowd is too busy screaming into CNBC to notice the setup forming.

But here’s the inconvenient little footnote: blood alone is not a buy signal. Sometimes there’s blood because the market is panicking. Sometimes there’s blood because the company stepped on a rake, swallowed the rake, then issued guidance about more rakes.

For traders, the edge is in waiting for panic to turn into structure. Look for capitulation, support reclaim, volume confirmation, and clean risk levels. Buying fear can be brilliant. Buying falling knives because a dead banker had a catchy quote is just cosplay with a brokerage account.

The market rewards courage. It punishes impatience. Annoyingly, those two look almost identical right before the trade.