The Trading Post | 05.05.26

Good morning,

Ceasefire jitters are testing the risk rally, crude is cooling off, Wall Street is eyeing jobs data and the Fed’s next move, AI megacaps are back in the regulatory spotlight, pre-market gappers are handing traders fresh volatility, and sticky inflation keeps the rate-cut path about as clean as a toddler’s white shirt.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.04.26 market close.

Market News

• Ceasefire jitters test the risk rally as oil softens and U.S. futures rebound: A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire is holding for now, with traders still watching Hormuz shipping lanes while equity futures bounce and recent record highs get retested. Keep an eye on failed breakouts in ES/NQ near prior highs; headline-risk rallies have a bad habit of aging like unrefrigerated seafood. YouTube / CNN

• Energy, defense, and shipping stay hostage to the next geopolitical headline: Crude has eased from its recent spike, but any deterioration in ceasefire talks could quickly reprice oil names, defense stocks, and shipping plays. XLE can stay under pressure if crude drifts lower, but flip bias fast if the ceasefire starts looking like a group project nobody finished. CNN

• Microsoft, xAI, and Google open AI models to U.S. government security reviews: Regulatory scrutiny is rising, but the AI growth story remains central to the market’s leadership narrative. Watch MSFT, GOOGL, and NVDA-related names for continuation versus exhaustion near recent highs; failed breakouts on strong volume can set up short-term mean-reversion plays. Investing.com

• AI earnings remain the market’s favorite dopamine dispenser: Palantir, AMD, and later Nvidia remain key names for traders gauging whether AI expectations are still justified or just wearing a very expensive Halloween costume. Consider pairing stronger AI infrastructure names against weaker software names showing relative underperformance. Investing.com

• Pre-market movers flag stock-specific volatility as earnings and margins drive gaps: Active movers tied to earnings, guidance, margin pressure, and order visibility are dominating early screens. For gappers, map prior day high/low, pre-market VWAP, and the opening range; let the first 5-minute candle do the talking before chasing anything wearing a rocket emoji. Market Chameleon

• Short-dated options remain useful, but only if liquidity shows up: High-volume gappers with tight spreads and liquid chains can offer defined-risk opportunities through weekly calls, puts, straddles, or strangles. Thin names with wide spreads should be admired from a safe distance, like raccoons and certain earnings calls. Market Chameleon

• Macro backdrop points to slow growth, not full stall: U.S. real GDP is running near a 2.0% annualized pace, with personal income still growing, keeping the economy in that awkward “fine, but don’t ask too many questions” zone. If yields drift lower while growth holds, tech and communications dips may stay attractive. BEA

• Sticky inflation keeps the Fed path uncertain: Fed projections still point toward lower rates over time, but inflation re-acceleration, geopolitical energy risk, and labor-market uncertainty are keeping policymakers cautious. If yields back up, watch for rotation into financials, value, and energy; if yields fade, growth gets more breathing room. Forbes

Earnings We’re Watching

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Ball Corporation (BALL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Cummins, Inc. (CMI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• PayPal (PYPL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. (PEG) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Shopify Inc. (SHOP) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Electronic Arts Inc (EA) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Buffett is basically saying: if your only plan is “I hope this goes up before lunch,” congratulations — you don’t have an investment thesis, you have a coin flip wearing a brokerage account.

For traders, this quote doesn’t mean every position needs to become a family heirloom. We’re not asking you to hand down your SPY calls to your grandchildren. It means the quality of the setup matters. Whether you’re holding for ten years, ten days, or ten minutes, you still need a reason beyond “the candle looked spicy.”

The deeper point: good decisions should survive more than one timeframe. A strong stock usually has real strength behind it — earnings, trend, momentum, institutional interest, sector leadership. A bad stock can still bounce, sure. So can a dead cat. Doesn’t mean you should build a retirement plan around it.

In trading terms: know what you own, know why you’re in it, and know where you’re wrong. Because if your conviction disappears the moment price ticks against you, it wasn’t conviction. It was just enthusiasm with margin approval.