The Trading Post | 05.06.26

Good morning,

Chip stocks are ripping as the AI cycle drags indexes to fresh highs, futures are extending on easing U.S.-Iran tensions and sliding oil, rates are holding near the danger zone without blowing up the tape, small caps are trying to participate like they remembered they were invited, and a chunky earnings slate is setting up plenty of post-print chaos for traders who enjoy staring into the volatility abyss.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.05.26 market close.

Market News

• AI semis keep dragging the market higher: Chip stocks are leading again as the S&P and Nasdaq ride record-high momentum, helped by softer crude and easing U.S.-Iran tail risk. Watch ES/NQ for continuation above prior highs, but respect VWAP like it signs your paycheck. Failed holds plus weak breadth would be the first sign this rally needs a snack break. CNBC / TheStreet / TS2

• Oil slides as geopolitical fear premium cools: The temporary pause in the Strait of Hormuz escort mission helped ease escalation fears, taking pressure off energy and shipping risk. If crude stays soft, that supports the risk-on bid; if oil reverses sharply intraday, don’t be shocked if the market suddenly remembers geopolitics exist. TS2

• Micron, AMD, and Super Micro light the AI fuse again: MU is getting bid on AI-storage demand, while AMD and SMCI are moving on strong earnings and upbeat AI guidance. These are momentum names, not “close your eyes and pray” names. Use opening range breakouts, volume confirmation, prior highs, and pre-market lows as pivots. Parabolic late-day rips are fade candidates only with tight risk—not heroic swing shorts for people allergic to survival. Investing.com / TS2

• Small caps finally show signs of life: Russell 2000 futures are firming as breadth improves, giving IWM and RTY traders something to do besides watch Nvidia cosplay as the entire economy. Pullbacks to the 10/20-day moving averages and prior resistance-turned-support are the key zones to watch. Investing.com

• Bitcoin is back near its 200-day sentiment line: BTC pushing toward its 200-day moving average gives traders a clean risk-on/risk-off tell for high-beta names. A clean reclaim supports speculative appetite; a rejection could weigh on crypto-adjacent equities and the usual “we promise it’s not just a beta trade” crowd. Investing.com

Earnings We’re Watching

• CVS Health (CVS) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Marriott International Inc. (MAR) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Walt Disney Co (DIS) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• H&R Block Inc. (HRB) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Snap Inc. (SNAP) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is the trader’s version of “measure twice, cut once,” except the saw is leverage and the wood is your account balance.

The market has a funny way of making every plan feel negotiable once real money is involved. You enter with a clean setup, a defined stop, a target, and all the emotional discipline of a Navy SEAL… then price moves against you by 37 cents and suddenly you’re consulting astrology, volume profiles, and a half-remembered YouTube comment from 2021.

Planning the trade is the easy part. That happens when the market is closed, the candles are still, and your brain is pretending to be rational. Trading the plan is where the actual work begins. That’s when the tape starts twitching, your P&L starts breathing, and your ego begins whispering brilliant ideas like, “Maybe widen the stop just this once.”

A trading plan does not guarantee profit. It guarantees structure. It gives you a reason to enter, a reason to exit, and most importantly, a reason not to improvise your way into a completely different trade because the first one hurt your feelings.

The market rewards discipline over drama. Plan the setup. Define the risk. Execute the rules. Then let the outcome be data, not a referendum on your intelligence, childhood, or worth as a human being.