The Trading Post | 05.08.26

Good morning,

Chip stocks are trying to rebound before the jobs report, oil is back on edge as Gulf tensions flare, AI momentum is still carrying the index tape, “Sell in May” is once again being treated like a superstition with a Bloomberg terminal, and single-stock movers are giving active traders plenty to chase — carefully, ideally with adult supervision.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.07.26 market close.

Market News

• Chips bounce before jobs data as futures turn green: U.S. futures are higher as semiconductor names attempt a rebound after profit-taking, but traders still have to clear the jobs report without face-planting into a volatility spike. For /ES and /NQ, watch whether the first reaction holds above premarket support or turns into the classic “great open, terrible life choices” reversal. Reuters

• Oil stays bid as U.S.–Iran tensions keep macro risk sticky: Renewed Gulf tension is keeping crude elevated and volatility alive, which means energy, airlines, defense, and index futures could all remain headline-sensitive. Traders can use crude as the tell: rising oil with weak breadth favors caution; cooling crude with tech strength keeps risk-on alive. Reuters

• AI remains the market’s favorite personality disorder: RBC reportedly raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,900 on earnings strength and AI momentum, reinforcing the idea that investors are still willing to pay up for anything with “compute,” “cloud,” or “AI infrastructure” in the sentence. Momentum traders can stay with the trend, but use pullbacks to the 10- and 20-day moving averages instead of buying vertical candles like it’s a moral obligation. MarketWatch

• Record highs meet geopolitical risk: U.S. stocks have been pressing record levels on tech strength, but oil above $100 and renewed conflict risk create a two-way tape where breakouts can work — until one headline turns the machines into caffeinated raccoons. Futures traders should watch prior all-time highs in /ES and /NQ, using crude and the dollar as intermarket confirmation. Reuters

• Semis remain the tape’s leadership group: Any orderly dip in the leading chip names could set up bull flags, VWAP reclaim trades, or break-and-retest entries, especially if breadth confirms after the open. If breadth does not confirm, congratulations, you may be watching a trap with better branding. CNBC

• Rocket Lab catches momentum on contract wins: Rocket Lab is moving higher as new launch contracts point to stronger business momentum, putting the stock back on breakout watch around prior resistance. Momentum traders should watch volume confirmation instead of assuming every space stock is headed to orbit because the name sounds cool. MarketWatch

• CoreWeave sells off on AI margin worries: CoreWeave is under pressure after revenue guidance disappointed and AI infrastructure costs weighed on margins, making it a short-bias candidate on failed rallies into resistance. Put spreads or call credit spreads may offer cleaner risk than trying to raw-dog the downside in a name that can still move like it drank espresso through a firehose. MarketWatch

• AI leaders still need discipline, not devotion: The AI trend remains strong, but stretched leaders with RSI divergences or failed breakouts can create quick mean-reversion opportunities. Stay bullish where the chart earns it; don’t confuse momentum with immortality. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) - Friday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This sounds painfully simple, which is exactly why traders love ignoring it. Buffett’s point is not that you need a PhD in semiconductor supply chains, cloud infrastructure margins, or whatever AI company just discovered a new way to burn cash in the name of “scale.” It means you should know what the business does, how it makes money, what can break the thesis, and why the market might care.

For traders, the same rule applies to setups. Never take a trade you cannot explain in one clean sentence. If the reason for entry sounds like a hostage note assembled from indicators — “well, the MACD is curling, but RSI is kind of neutral, and the 8 EMA is emotionally supportive” — that is not a thesis. That is chart astrology with extra steps.

Understand the business. Understand the setup. Understand the risk. Because confusion is expensive, and the market charges interest.