The Trading Post | 05.12.26

May 12, 2026

Good morning,

CPI lands this morning with rate-cut expectations, Treasury yields, and the S&P’s record run all waiting for the verdict; tech leadership is stretched, macro risk stays elevated with PPI and retail sales still ahead, earnings from Cisco, Alibaba, and Applied Materials test the AI/semi trade, and pre-market gappers are already reminding us that “liquidity” is sometimes more of a suggestion than a fact.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.11.26 market close.

Market News

  • CPI takes center stage: April inflation data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, with yields, rate-cut odds, and index direction all liable to lurch in unison. For traders, the first move may be loud; the second move may be useful.

  • Tech is priced for perfection: Mega-cap leadership remains extended near all-time highs, leaving QQQ and high-duration growth names especially sensitive to a hotter-than-expected print. Investing.com

  • Watch the yield confirmation: A sustained move higher in the 10-year after CPI would favor a more defensive tape and tighter risk on tech longs. Falling yields would make dip buyers suddenly feel very scholarly.

  • Macro risk is not done after today: PPI arrives Wednesday and retail sales follow Thursday, keeping volatility catalysts stacked across the week rather than neatly contained in one morning candle. Investing.com

  • Rotation trades may matter more than index direction: If CPI jolts tech, relative strength could shift toward equal-weight exposure, financials, energy, industrials, and other sectors that have spent less time auditioning for a moon landing. Investing.com

  • Cisco, Alibaba, and Applied Materials step into the earnings spotlight: These reports will test enterprise tech demand, China sentiment, and the semiconductor bid at a moment when optimism already has a premium valuation attached. Zacks

  • Semis remain a group trade: Reactions in AMAT could spill into SMH and SOXX, offering cleaner liquidity than trying to wrestle a wide-spread earnings name after hours. Investing.com

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Aramark Holdings Corp. (ARMK) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • JD.com, Inc. (JD) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Under Armour Inc. (UA) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) - Tuesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Astera Labs, Inc (ALAB), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Arista Networks Inc (ANET),
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

CIGNA Corporation (CI), Colliers International Group (CIGI), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Entegris Inc (ENTG)

Expedia, Inc (EXPE), Generac Holdings, Inc (GNRC), Lowe’s Companies, Inc (LOW),
3M Company (MMM)

Direxion Daily Gold Miners (NUGT), Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB), Synopsys, Inc (SNPS),
S&P Global Inc (SPGI)

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Tapestry Inc (TPR), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO),
Astera Labs Inc - Common Stock (ALAB)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

This is the market’s polite way of reminding us that today’s wins are usually the result of yesterday’s discipline. The shade looks effortless once you’re sitting in it, but somebody had to plant, water, wait, and resist the urge to dig the thing up every time progress felt slow.

Trading works the same way. Strong watchlists, repeatable setups, risk controls, and patience rarely feel thrilling in the moment. They feel boring. Suspiciously boring. But those small, disciplined decisions compound into the kind of consistency traders love to call “luck” once it finally shows up on the P&L.

The market tends to reward people who prepare before the opportunity appears—not those who sprint into the forest looking for instant shade.