The Trading Post | 05.13.25

Good morning,

US-China tariff truce gives way to pullback, inflation data could make or break Fed hopes, UnitedHealth takes a premarket nosedive, Goldman gets bullish while sector rotation shakes things up.

Master a proven SPX trading strategy that requires just 5-6 hours per week with Brandon Wendell's free masterclass designed for traders seeking both consistency and freedom. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 05.12.25 market close.

Market News

  • US-China Tariff Cool-Down: After cutting tariffs on Chinese imports from 120% to 54%, markets surged Monday... then promptly reconsidered this morning as reality set in. Reuters

  • CPI Incoming: The first inflation read since the tariff shift drops today. Traders bracing for impact. Treasury yields dipped, options volume surged. CNBC

  • UnitedHealth Implodes: Down 10% premarket after pulling 2025 guidance. Healthcare sector gets clobbered. Moneycontrol

  • Goldman Sees Sunshine: Recession odds now at 35% and S&P 500 target hiked to 6,500. Glass half full? More like glass full of hopium. Reuters

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

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This free training reveals how to analytically identify the highest-probability SPX candidates before they make their move, implement a strategy that needs minimal supervision while active, and join the small percentage of traders who've discovered this efficient approach to the markets. 

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Earnings We’re Watching

  • Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • JD.com, Inc. (JD) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Sea Limited (SE) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Venture Global, Inc. (VG) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

VST, XYL, XOM, ARM

SPXL, SWK, TEAM, VLO

LITE, MAR, MMM, PDD

IBM, INTU, JNJ, LEN

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Daily Moment of Zen

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

Sir John Templeton

Why It Matters:

This isn’t just a poetic cycle — it’s a trader’s cheat code with a side of existential dread. Markets thrive on doubt and die when everyone thinks they're a genius. When nobody wants to touch stocks with a 10-foot pole? That’s the birth. When they grudgingly buy the dip? Growth. When your Uber driver’s giving you stock picks? Maturity. And when your aunt opens a Robinhood account and YOLOs into NFTs? That’s your cue to quietly exit stage left.

For today’s market? Let’s just say we’re somewhere between "mature optimism" and a “light euphoria appetizer.” Trade accordingly — and don’t get caught buying the confetti.