The Trading Post | 05.15.26

May 15, 2026

Good morning,

Tech and AI leaders are keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq parked near record highs, sticky inflation is keeping the Fed’s “higher for longer” threat alive, oil remains elevated on Iran-related geopolitical risk, market breadth is getting suspiciously narrow beneath the mega-cap glow, and today’s data slate could give traders another reason to either chase or regret chasing.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.14.26 market close.

Market News

  • Tech and AI keep the rally humming: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record territory as mega-cap tech and chip names continue to lead. For active traders, QQQ, NQ, SMH, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MSFT, and GOOGL remain the main characters; watch for clean continuation above prior highs or failed breakouts that suggest the party needs a breather. Reuters

  • Inflation still refuses to leave quietly: Hotter producer-price data and firm oil prices keep pressure on the “Fed cuts soon” crowd. Rising Treasury yields alongside weakening breadth would be a yellow flag for risk assets, particularly rate-sensitive growth, real estate, and housing plays. Reuters

  • Oil stays bid as geopolitics stay messy: Crude remains elevated amid Iran-related tensions and lingering supply concerns, keeping energy names relevant and inflation anxiety conveniently well-fed. CL futures, XLE, and OIH are worth watching for continuation patterns or exhaustion moves at resistance. CNBC

  • Breadth is narrowing under the surface: The indexes look strong, but the advance is increasingly top-heavy, with mega-cap winners doing an uncomfortable amount of the lifting. Keep an eye on RSP versus SPY and IWM versus SPY; if equal-weight and small caps keep lagging, this rally may be healthier on paper than in reality. CNBC

  • Today’s macro data could stir the tape: Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilization, and Fed commentary are on deck. Intraday traders should treat release windows as volatility traps first and opportunities second—because the market loves punishing anyone who confuses the first candle with divine revelation. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) - Friday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), Arista Networks, Inc (ANET), Cameco Corporation (CCJ),
Colliers International Group (CIGI)

Dollar Tree, Inc (DLTR), Entegris, Inc (ENTG), Eaton Corporation (ETN), FedEx Corporation (FDX)

IntercontinentalExchange, Inc (ICE), Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG), Linde plc - Ordinary Shares (LIN), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

Cloudflare Inc (NET), GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDL), Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc (ODFL), Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)

Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), Arista Networks Inc (ANET),
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.

Warren Buffett

Why It Matters:

Volatility is not the market being rude. It is the market handing out price discrepancies while everyone else is busy overreacting in public. The disciplined trader does not panic because candles got dramatic; they wait for emotional participants to misprice risk, then act with a plan. In other words, let the crowd provide the opportunity—just don’t join the crowd in creating it.