The Trading Post | 05.18.26

May 19, 2026

Good morning,

Chip stocks are extending their slide as AI favorites lose some swagger, Treasury yields are still making growth traders uncomfortable, Home Depot earnings and housing data are on deck, Monday’s mixed tape showed sector rotation is alive and well, and Nvidia remains the gravitational center of the AI trade. Naturally, one stock now doubles as both a market catalyst and a personality test.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of [DATE] market close.

Market News

  • Chip stocks stay under pressure as AI leaders wobble again: Futures are softer premarket, with semis and AI-adjacent names still looking heavy as traders brace for Nvidia earnings and keep one eye on inflation-sensitive yields. Failed bounces in high-beta chip names may remain the cleaner short-side setup until buyers prove otherwise. Reuters

  • Treasury stress keeps long-duration assets on edge: Bond investors are not exactly radiating calm, and higher yields continue to pressure tech, growth, and anything priced for perfection. If yields push higher intraday, QQQ and richly valued AI names could stay vulnerable; if they cool, expect sharp relief rallies from the usual oversold suspects. Reuters

  • Home Depot earnings and housing data could stir the cyclicals: HD reports before the bell, while Pending Home Sales gives traders another read on housing demand in a higher-rate world. Watch for read-through action in LOW, builders, and housing ETFs if either the earnings call or macro data surprises. Yahoo Finance

  • Monday’s tape was mixed, not broken: Tech sold off as yields climbed, but broader indexes held up better, suggesting rotation rather than wholesale risk aversion. That keeps relative-strength trades in play: fading weak NQ rips may look cleaner than fighting sturdier ES or value-heavy pockets of the market. Reuters

  • Nvidia remains the market’s AI mood ring: Premarket chatter keeps circling back to NVDA and AI infrastructure demand, with the upcoming outlook viewed as a major test for the entire semiconductor complex. If Nvidia loses key support, sympathy weakness could spread fast; if it reclaims broken levels with volume, the squeeze crowd may suddenly rediscover optimism. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Bilibili Inc. (BILI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Home Depot, Inc. (HD) - Tuesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), Applied Materials, Inc (AMAT), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Arista Networks, Inc (ANET)

Aon Corporation (AON), Cameco Corporation (CCJ), Cadence Design Systems, Inc (CDNS),
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc (CHRW)

Elastic N.V. (ESTC), FedEx Corporation (FDX), First Solar, Inc (FSLR), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (GS)

IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE), ICON plc (ICLR), Kkr (KKR), Drxn Dly S&P Biotech Bull 3X (LABU)

Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG), GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDL), Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTV), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL), WW International Inc (WTW), Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE),
Applied Materials, Inc (AMAT)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup swe call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.

George Patton

Why It Matters:

Markets reward courage, not chaos. A calculated risk means you know the setup, the trigger, the invalidation point, and exactly how much pain you’re willing to tolerate before admitting the trade had other plans. Being rash is chasing a candle because it moved fast and your mouse hand got emotionally involved.

The distinction matters. Good traders take risk on purpose. Bad traders discover they took risk after the position starts bleeding. One is process. The other is tuition.