The Trading Post | 05.21.26

Good morning,

Nvidia beat earnings but still managed to disappoint traders with expectations set somewhere between “flawless” and “divine intervention,” index futures are grinding higher as jobless claims and yields keep everyone honest, crude is bouncing on Iran-war uncertainty and inventory drawdowns, Samsung strike fears are cooling after a tentative wage deal, and Asia FX stress is keeping the “higher-for-longer” crowd annoyingly relevant.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.20.26 market close.

Market News

• Nvidia Beats, Stock Wobbles: Nvidia topped EPS and revenue estimates, but the stock slipped as guidance and commentary failed to clear the market’s absurdly high AI hurdle. Watch NVDA, SMH, SOXX, and high-beta AI names for failed gap-ups, lower highs, and post-earnings range breaks. If NVDA reclaims yesterday’s post-earnings high on strong volume, the AI squeeze may still have legs. If not, welcome to momentum gravity. Kiplinger / Reuters / CNBC

• Futures Grind Higher, But Yields Still Have the Steering Wheel: U.S. index futures are modestly higher after several yield-pressure sessions, with traders eyeing jobless claims and sticky inflation concerns. For ES and NQ, yesterday’s cash-session lows are the risk line: hold above and mean-reversion longs are alive; break below and VWAP rallies become short-the-pop territory. Reuters / Yahoo Finance / CNBC

• Crude Rebounds as Iran Risk and Inventory Draws Return to the Chat: Oil is bouncing after a two-day slide as traders refocus on unresolved Iran-war risk and U.S. inventory drawdowns. XLE, XOP, CVX, and XOM are back on the watchlist for continuation setups if WTI follows through. Failed breakouts in energy, however, are still short candidates because crude loves nothing more than emotionally manipulating sector rotation. Reuters / CNBC

• Samsung Wage Deal Eases Chip Supply Fears: Samsung shares jumped after the company and its union reached a tentative wage agreement, suspending a planned strike and removing one immediate chip-supply headache. If semis can’t catch a bid despite Samsung relief and Nvidia’s fundamental beat, that’s a loud tell that the AI trade may need a nap. Reuters / Kiplinger

• Asia FX Stress Keeps Volatility Trades Alive: Higher oil prices are pressuring Asian currencies and forcing more aggressive policy responses, while China’s crude stockpiling adds another layer to the supply-crunch narrative. Elevated energy, FX stress, and sticky yields favor long-volatility structures, VIX call spreads, and intraday long-gamma tactics around data and Fed-speak. Reuters / Reuters / Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

• Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Deere & Company (DE) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Workday, Inc. (WDAY) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Beautiful quote. Also dangerous in the hands of anyone whose entire risk-management plan is “vibes and a login screen.”

Buying panic can be powerful because markets often overreact when fear becomes contagious. Forced selling, margin calls, ugly headlines, and everyone suddenly discovering “cash is a position” can create opportunities for traders willing to act while the crowd is busy hyperventilating into a spreadsheet.

But “blood in the streets” does not mean buying every falling knife like you’re trying to catch a blender. It means watching for exhaustion, failed breakdowns, reclaim of key levels, improving breadth, and setups where the risk is actually defined. Panic creates opportunity. It also creates bagholders with motivational quotes in their bio.

The edge is not bravery. The edge is preparation. Have your levels, know your invalidation point, size the trade like survival matters, and remember: buying fear works best when you’re early enough to get paid, but not so early you become part of the blood supply.