The Trading Post | 05.28.26

Good morning,

Wall Street is trying to digest fresh record highs while waiting on April PCE, traders are watching whether the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge cools the rate-cut anxiety, AI and chip momentum remain hostage to bond yields, oil and the dollar are cooling as Middle East headlines keep everyone charmingly jumpy, and today’s earnings slate puts retail, staples, and rate-sensitive names back under the microscope.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.27.26 market close.

Market News

• PCE takes the wheel: S&P 500 futures are softer ahead of April PCE, jobless claims, personal income, durable goods, and new home sales at 8:30 a.m. ET. Translation: the market gets a full macro buffet before most people finish their first coffee. CNBC

• Fed-cut math gets another stress test: Today’s inflation print could reset expectations for the timing and size of rate cuts after a run of record highs. Watch ES and NQ around VWAP, overnight highs, and prior cash highs. A hot print favors failed-breakout shorts; a soft print gives bulls permission to pretend valuation gravity is optional. Yahoo Finance

• Record highs, because apparently that’s just what we do now: The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed at records yesterday, helped by strong earnings and guidance from consumer names like Bath & Body Works and Abercrombie. Yahoo Finance

• Retail strength, energy weakness: Consumer winners popped while energy lagged as oil fell more than 4%, reinforcing rotation away from O&G and toward select cyclicals. Watch retail leaders on post-PCE dips that hold breakout levels; weak bounces in XLE remain fade candidates if crude stays heavy. Yahoo Finance

• AI rally meets the bond market’s personality disorder: AI-linked tech and chip names are still driving the broader rally, but recent yield spikes have shown how quickly “unstoppable momentum” becomes “please define duration risk.” If yields jump after PCE, extended AI names may get clipped. If yields behave, buy-the-dip traders will come crawling back like nothing happened. Reuters

• Semis remain the macro trade in a hoodie: A prior bond selloff knocked S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures lower as traders questioned whether stretched valuations could handle higher-for-longer rates. For today, treat AI and semis as high-beta wrappers around the inflation print. Reuters

• Oil and dollar cool, but the headline risk didn’t get the memo: Earlier optimism around U.S.–Iran peace efforts helped ease oil and the dollar, but fresh tensions keep crude and energy equities vulnerable to sudden reversals. For CL and energy names, respect range trades, keep size modest, and don’t marry a position during geopolitical whiplash. Reuters

• Middle East risk stays binary: Peace hopes and renewed tensions are sharing the same room, which is always great for traders who enjoy stops getting vaporized by headlines. Energy equities remain tactical, not emotional. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) - Thursday (BMO) 

• TD Bank Group (TD) - Thursday (BMO) 

• U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) - Thursday (BMO) 

• XPeng Inc. (XPEV) - Thursday (BMO) 

• American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Dell Technologies (DELL) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Gap, Inc. (GAP) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That’s the kind of quote that sounds obvious until you watch a trader try to revenge-trade the Nasdaq like the index personally keyed their car.

The market has no memory of your effort, no concern for your thesis, and absolutely zero interest in the emotional TED Talk you gave yourself before clicking buy. It is not impressed by conviction. It is not moved by your “perfect setup.” It does not care that your stop was “basically right.”

Which is exactly why behavior is the whole game.

You cannot control the PCE print. You cannot control whether yields spike. You cannot control whether a headline out of the Middle East turns crude into a roulette wheel with leverage. But you can control your size, your entry, your stop, your patience, and whether you decide to turn one bad trade into a full-blown Greek tragedy.

Markets reward discipline because discipline is rare. Everyone wants the big move. Fewer people want the boring little rules that keep them alive long enough to catch it.

So today, trade the reaction. Not the prediction. Not the ego. Not the desperate need to be the genius who “saw it coming.”

Because the market does not know you exist — and frankly, that might be the healthiest relationship you have all week.