The Trading Post | 05.29.26

Good morning,

Oil is having its worst monthly drop since the COVID crash, Snowflake is trying to make software stocks cool again, futures are slipping into a headline-heavy month-end close, Dell and HP are riding the AI server wave, and energy traders are being forced to reprice the geopolitical risk premium faster than a retail trader abandons discipline after one green candle.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 05.28.26 market close.

Market News

• Oil drops 20% from its 2026 peak as US-Iran ceasefire hopes hit crude: Brent slid to $92.56 as traders priced in the possibility of a 60-day ceasefire MOU, giving oil its worst monthly decline since the COVID crash. For active traders, this is a two-way knife fight: short-term bearish below $92 with $88–$89 in play, but any breakdown in talks could snap crude right back toward $100. Fade energy rallies carefully, consider defined-risk put spreads on XLE or OXY, and keep tail-risk hedges nearby because geopolitics has a charming habit of ruining clean charts. CNBC / Reuters

• Snowflake surges 35% as AI demand and a $6B AWS deal light up software: SNOW ripped toward its best day ever after product revenue jumped 34% year over year to $1.33B and remaining performance obligations climbed 38%. The move sparked a broader software rally across names like ServiceNow, Oracle, and Palantir. Do not chase the open like it owes you money. Watch for the first 30-minute pullback toward VWAP or the prior day’s high for cleaner continuation setups. CRM lagging the move could also become a rotation candidate if software momentum keeps spreading. CNBC / Yahoo Finance

• US stock futures slide as Wall Street waits for an official US-Iran update and the monthly close: Futures are giving back ground after record highs earlier in the week, with traders watching both the geopolitical tape and month-end flows. Translation: expect plenty of movement, not all of it meaningful. Window dressing can make the close sloppy, fake, and emotionally manipulative — basically the market’s version of a bad ex. Tighten stops, avoid oversized bets, and treat the final hour as the real tell. A confirmed ceasefire endorsement could lift equities while pressuring oil further. Yahoo Finance / Yahoo Finance

• Dell and HP jump premarket as earnings beats keep the AI hardware trade alive: DELL and HPQ both moved higher premarket after earnings, helped by ongoing demand tied to AI servers and infrastructure. For active traders, gap-and-go only matters if the names hold above the prior close after the first 15 minutes. Otherwise, congratulations, you’ve found another opening trap wearing a very convincing AI costume. AMD and AVGO remain secondary watchlist names if the broader tech tape holds and buyers keep rewarding AI infrastructure exposure. Investing.com / YouTube

• Energy traders reprice geopolitical risk as crude nears key pre-war levels: WTI around $87–$88 is approaching the pre-war price zone, and a confirmed ceasefire could remove another $5–$8 of risk premium from crude. That would pressure E&P names and likely keep XLE on defense. Watch Strait of Hormuz shipping headlines closely — a confirmed reopening would take away one of the last big supply-risk excuses. A pairs trade angle: short XLE / long XLI, expressing lower energy costs as a tailwind for industrials while keeping the thesis more balanced than simply yelling “short oil” into a moving train. Reuters / Reuters

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is Buffett’s polite way of saying: if your entire investment thesis depends on refreshing the chart every 11 seconds and whispering “please” at your monitor, it may not be an investment. It may be a hostage situation with ticker symbols.

The idea is simple: buy quality, not excitement. A great business should not require perfect timing, perfect headlines, perfect Fed policy, and a perfectly caffeinated CNBC panel to make sense. If the market closed for a decade, the only thing left would be the business itself — its earnings, cash flow, moat, management, and ability to survive whatever fresh nonsense the economy invents next.

For traders, this doesn’t mean every position has to be a 10-year hold. We’re not marrying every stock we date. But it does mean your best setups should still begin with a basic question: “Is this a real opportunity, or am I just chasing the candle because it looked emotionally available?”

In fast markets, price moves first and rationalization shows up later wearing a fake mustache. The discipline is knowing the difference between a quality setup and a shiny object with volume.

Because when the market is open, popularity can masquerade as value.

When the market shuts down, only quality gets to keep talking.