The Trading Post | 06.03.26

Good morning,

AI is still keeping the market duct-taped near record highs, crude is ripping as U.S.–Iran tension revives everyone’s favorite little nightmare — supply risk — the dollar is flirting with 160 yen as rate-cut dreams get quietly escorted from the premises, software stocks are up roughly 44% off April lows and now face resistance, and Bitcoin is getting smacked as capital rotates toward AI and potential IPO liquidity.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.02.26 market close.

Market News

• AI keeps indices near records, but oil and Iran risk are capping the party: ES and NQ are pulling back from recent highs as crude’s three-day surge adds friction to the AI melt-up. Bulls need overnight lows/VWAP to hold; bears can watch failed pushes into prior highs for shallow pullback setups in SPY/QQQ. Reuters

• Crude rips for a third straight session: Brent is pushing toward the mid-90s as Strait of Hormuz risk comes back into focus. CL pullbacks toward VWAP or broken resistance remain tradable, while XLE, XOM, and CVX may attract relative-strength flows. Reuters

• USD/JPY flirts with 160 as rate expectations shift back toward hikes: Higher-for-longer is back in the chat, because apparently markets were getting too comfortable. Watch IWM and unprofitable tech for relative weakness; TLT bounces may remain fade candidates via put spreads. Reuters

• Software stocks face a reality check after a monster rebound: The group has bounced roughly 44% off April lows and is now pressing into heavy resistance. Momentum traders need clean continuation; mean-reversion traders can watch for gap-fades, failed breakouts, and lower-high failures in IGV and high-beta software names. Reuters

• Bitcoin drops nearly 10% in three sessions: Crypto beta is weak as whales sell and capital chases AI, private-market liquidity, and whatever shiny object has a pitch deck this week. Watch COIN and miners for failed bounces; semis remain the stronger risk-on lane until flows say otherwise. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• Macy’s, Inc. (M) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) - Wednesday (AMC) 

• Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Buffett’s point is simple: if the business is garbage, the chart better be absolutely beautiful — and even then, keep one hand near the exit.

For traders, this doesn’t mean every position needs to become a retirement plan. We’re not naming our SPY calls and adding them to the family Christmas card. But it does mean the quality of what you trade matters. Strong companies tend to forgive imperfect entries better than broken businesses with “huge upside” and the financial stability of a folding chair.

A 10-minute trade still benefits from a 10-year mindset: know what you’re buying, understand why it moves, respect the risk, and don’t confuse a ticker symbol with a lottery ticket wearing a suit.

The best trades usually come from alignment — solid setup, liquid market, defined risk, and a reason bigger than “it’s moving.” Because if your only thesis is “green candle go brrr,” congratulations, you’re not trading. You’re speed-dating volatility.