The Trading Post | 06.04.26

Good morning,

Chip stocks are under pressure after Broadcom disappointed, Nasdaq futures are leading the early decline, oil and Middle East risk are keeping inflation fears warm, Bitcoin is sliding from its May peak, and the AI trade is getting a stress test after a parabolic run. You know, just a normal Thursday in a market allergic to calm.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.03.26 market close.

Market News

• Chip stocks stumble after Broadcom miss: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are lower as Broadcom’s revenue miss weighs on the semiconductor complex and pressures the AI leadership group. Momentum traders now get to find out which chip names have real buyers underneath them — adorable. Reuters

• Nasdaq futures lead the decline: After a strong run toward record highs, the tech-heavy trade is finally taking a breather. Watch NQ for failed rallies into overnight resistance, especially if semis can’t reclaim VWAP after the open. Reuters

• Wall Street pulls back from record highs: The Dow fell about 1.2%, the S&P 500 slid roughly 0.7%, and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.9% Wednesday as oil, Middle East tensions, and profit-taking hit the tape. Apparently “geopolitical risk plus stretched valuations” is still not bullish. Weird. Reuters

• Oil spike keeps inflation fears alive: Brent crude pushed toward the upper-$90s as regional supply concerns resurfaced. If crude keeps firming, energy names may stay bid while broader equity multiples start sweating through their designer shirts. Reuters

• Energy stocks move back into focus: XLE, XOM, and CVX remain on watch if crude holds above prior-day highs. Pullbacks into the 8–21 EMA zone could offer continuation setups if geopolitical risk stays elevated. Reuters

• Bitcoin drops nearly 20% from May peak: Bitcoin has slid almost 20% from its mid-May high, hitting its lowest level since February. BTC-linked equities like MSTR, COIN, and miners may stay vulnerable if morning bounce attempts fail. Reuters

• Crypto loses relative momentum: With volatility rotating back into large-cap tech and index futures, crypto is no longer the cleanest momentum playground on the board. For now, ES, NQ, semis, and energy are where the tradable oxygen seems to be. Reuters

• Oil, yields, and Middle East risk cloud the summer rally story: Markets are pausing after a strong run as investors reassess rich valuations, higher oil, and risk sentiment that suddenly remembered it has responsibilities. Reuters

• Broadcom tests the crowded AI trade: Broadcom’s disappointing revenue and guidance hit the stock after hours and spilled into the broader chip complex. When expectations are priced for perfection, “pretty good” can still get treated like a felony. CNBC

• Index hedging may stay active: If semis fail to recover VWAP and breadth weakens intraday, traders with long exposure may look at short-dated QQQ or NQ puts as tactical protection into the close. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Ciena Corporation (CIEN) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Toro Company (TTC) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

That’s Buffett’s polite way of saying: if a normal market drawdown turns you into a doomsday prepper with a brokerage login, maybe rethink the game you’re playing.

Stocks do not move in straight lines. They lurch, overreact, fake people out, punish optimism, reward patience, and occasionally behave like they were assembled by interns during a fire drill. A 50% decline sounds insane until you remember that great companies, major indexes, and entire sectors have all gone through brutal drawdowns before recovering.

For traders, the lesson isn’t “hold everything forever and call it conviction.” That’s not investing — that’s emotional taxidermy. The real lesson is knowing the difference between planned risk and panic risk. If your trade or investment only feels good when it’s green, you don’t have a strategy. You have a mood ring.

Before entering any position, know the reason, the risk, the invalidation point, and the exit plan. Because when price drops, your brain will not suddenly become a calm little Warren Buffett monk. It will start negotiating, rationalizing, and checking futures at 2:13 AM like that’s healthy.

Volatility is the admission fee. Panic is optional. Position size accordingly.