The Trading Post | 06.10.26

Good morning,

Tech is leading the downside into this morning’s inflation print, Super Micro is getting punished after announcing a $7B equity raise, Nike slipped after an RBC downgrade, chip and AI names remain under pressure, and U.S.–Iran tensions are adding another layer of macro anxiety because apparently CPI wasn’t dramatic enough.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 06.09.26 market close.

Market News

• Tech leads the premarket slide: Dow futures are down roughly 0.7%, S&P futures are off about 0.8%, and Nasdaq futures are lower by more than 1.2% as traders brace for the 8:30 a.m. ET inflation report and renewed geopolitical stress. Watch NQ/ES for failed bounces into overnight VWAP or prior RTH support. Reuters

• CPI is today’s trapdoor: A hot print could extend pressure on high-duration tech, AI, and growth names. A cooler print could spark a sharp relief bounce, especially if the first 30-minute range holds. In other words, the spreadsheet gods get the wheel at 8:30. Reuters

• Super Micro gets smoked: SMCI is down roughly 11% premarket after announcing plans to raise about $7B through equity and equity-linked deals to fund AI server component purchases. Great for the balance sheet. Less great for shareholders who enjoy not being diluted before breakfast. Reuters

• SMCI becomes the tape to watch: If it loses premarket lows after the open, momentum shorts may stay in control. If it reclaims early support, watch for a violent gap-fill attempt because broken AI names still occasionally remember they’re cult stocks. Reuters

• Nike catches a downgrade: NKE is down about 1.5% premarket after RBC cut the stock from “outperform” to “sector perform,” citing slower growth concerns. A break of recent swing support could set up bearish call spreads or continuation shorts. Reuters

• Consumer discretionary gets a sentiment check: If NKE weakness spreads into discretionary ETFs, retail names could stay under pressure while defensive sectors attract rotation. Translation: when sneakers wheeze, check the whole mall. Reuters

• Chips remain heavy: Tuesday’s selling in AI and semiconductor names dragged the Nasdaq and S&P lower while the Dow managed a small gain. If that divergence continues, traders can watch for long YM / short NQ or long DIA / short QQQ setups around VWAP. CNBC

• AI trade still needs a pulse check: Weak semis breaking daily support could favor bear call spreads, put spreads, or ratio spreads in liquid chip names and sector ETFs. Strong names holding the 21/50-day moving averages may become relative-strength dip-buy candidates. Reuters

• U.S.–Iran tension keeps oil in play: U.S. strikes against Iranian targets added geopolitical pressure to an already jittery market. Watch crude futures around overnight highs/lows; failed spikes can be faded, but sustained breakouts may favor energy momentum and oil-linked call spreads. Yahoo Finance

• Risk dashboard for today: If breadth is weak, oil is rising, the dollar/rates are firm, and tech remains heavy, that is not exactly a “buy everything with a ticker” environment. Defensive, short-biased, and market-neutral option structures deserve a seat at the table. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Oracle Corp. (ORCL) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is one of those trading quotes that sounds calm, mature, and deeply responsible — which is exactly why most traders ignore it right before clicking “Buy” on something moving 4% in 11 seconds.

The point is simple: great traders don’t worship the P&L. They worship the process. The setup. The risk. The entry. The exit. The discipline to pass when the trade is “almost good enough,” which is usually Wall Street slang for “future regret with a ticker symbol.”

Money is the scoreboard, not the strategy. If you focus only on the money, you’ll chase. You’ll size too big. You’ll turn one losing trade into a personal courtroom drama starring you, your ego, and a very uncooperative candlestick.

But if you focus on making the best trades — trades that match your plan, your rules, and your risk — the money has a much better chance of showing up as the byproduct.

Funny how that works. The market rewards patience, discipline, and structure… right after it finishes humiliating everyone who thought vibes were a trading system.