The Trading Post | 06.11.26

Good morning,

Hot May CPI hit a three-year high, AI chip leaders got smacked, the Dow slipped below 50,000, oil stayed twitchy on Iran headlines, and Super Micro reminded traders that “AI backlog” sounds less magical when paired with a $7B equity raise.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.10.26 market close.

Market News

• Hot CPI keeps the tape jumpy: May inflation came in hotter, putting pressure back on growth stocks, rate-sensitive names, and anyone who thought the market was done caring about macro. Adorable. Reuters

• AI semis get rug-pulled: After a crowded run, chip leaders are seeing profit-taking accelerate. Watch QQQ, SMH, NVDA-adjacent names, and the 8/21 EMA structure for failed bounce setups. Nasdaq

• Dow 50,000 becomes the psychology line: Reclaim and hold = bulls breathe. Reject = sellers get another invitation to make everyone’s brokerage app look like a crime scene. Yahoo Finance

• S&P 7,300–7,350 is the intraday battleground: A reclaim favors risk-on continuation; failure below that zone keeps the tape vulnerable to bear flags and opening-drive failures. Yahoo Finance

• Iran risk keeps crude and fear bid: Oil remains headline-sensitive as U.S.–Iran tensions keep traders watching CL, ES, NQ, DXY, and yields like five toddlers holding fireworks. Reuters

• Sector rotation is alive under the tech wreck: Even with semis cracking, broader breadth held up better than the headline indices suggested. Watch relative strength in XLF, XLE, and defensive groups against SMH/QQQ weakness. Yahoo Finance

• SMCI gets punished on $7B equity plan: Super Micro dropped hard after announcing a major financing plan, turning the stock into a clean “watch the VWAP” battleground for both short sellers and dip-buyers with poor impulse control. Yahoo Finance

• CASY rips on earnings: Casey’s jumped after a strong report, giving momentum traders a clean watchlist name for opening-range breakouts, bull flags, or VWAP failure fades if the gap gets too crowded. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

• Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - Thursday (AMC) 

• Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Mark Twain, somehow, managed to summarize risk management, seasonality, trader psychology, and the entire options market in one sentence.

The joke is obvious: every month is dangerous when you’re speculating instead of trading with a plan. Markets don’t become risky because the calendar flipped. They become risky when we start confusing a hunch with an edge, a rally with permission, and a red candle with a personal attack.

For traders, the takeaway is simple: there is no “safe” month to be careless. October has the spooky reputation, sure, but March can slap you, June can fake you out, and January can convince you that your New Year’s resolution was “overleverage immediately.”

Trade the setup. Define the risk. Respect the stop. The calendar is not your enemy.

Your impulse control might be.