The Trading Post | 06.12.26

Good morning,

Wall Street futures are higher on hopes for a Middle East peace deal, SpaceX is set for a record-smashing Nasdaq debut, oil is sliding as geopolitical risk cools, Adobe is under pressure after its CFO exits for Marvell, and next week’s Fed meeting is already lurking in the corner like a volatility goblin.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.11.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures Rise As Peace Hopes Put Risk Back On: Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are green as traders price in a possible Middle East de-escalation, which is apparently all it takes to turn “global tension” into “buy the dip.” Watch NQ and ES opening range strength, but be careful chasing if oil reverses. Reuters

• SpaceX Debut Becomes Today’s Main Character: SpaceX priced its monster IPO at $135 per share, raising a record $75B and valuing the company around $1.77T. Expect absurd volume, messy price discovery, retail enthusiasm, and enough volatility to make a market maker question life choices. Reuters

• Oil Slides As Gulf Deal Hopes Hit Crude: Brent fell sharply as traders bet a U.S.–Iran deal could reduce war-driven supply risk. Energy names may stay heavy if crude keeps leaking, while airlines, transports, and broader risk assets may get a tailwind. Because nothing says “macro clarity” like oil moving on diplomacy rumors. Reuters

• Adobe Gets Hit After CFO Exit: Adobe shares are under pressure after CFO Dan Durn was named Marvell’s new finance chief. The company raised its outlook, but executive turnover plus a gap move means traders should watch whether buyers defend the open or let the chart do what charts do best: punish optimism. Reuters

• Fed Wildcard Looms Over Next Week: A newly led Fed heads into next week’s policy meeting with indexes already wobbling from record highs. Rate-sensitive names, mega-cap tech, and Treasury yields remain the tells. Translation: today’s rally may be real, but the Fed still gets to walk in next week and start moving furniture. Reuters

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Peter Lynch understood something every trader eventually learns after donating a few emotional tuition payments to the market: intelligence is useful, but intestinal fortitude keeps you from panic-clicking your way into financial interpretive dance.

The market does not usually beat traders because they cannot read a chart. It beats them because they cannot sit through discomfort. A clean setup pulls back and suddenly the brain starts negotiating with fear like it’s in a hostage crisis. “Maybe I should exit early.” “Maybe this one is different.” “Maybe I should move my stop to a place no sane person would recognize.”

Training your stomach means learning to tolerate uncertainty without turning every red candle into a personal attack. It means following the plan when the trade is boring, ugly, or temporarily making you question your career choices.

Brains help you find the setup.

Stomach helps you survive long enough to let the setup work.