The Trading Post | 06.15.26

Good morning,

U.S. futures are jumping after U.S.–Iran peace headlines, crude is getting whacked as the Hormuz war premium unwinds, SpaceX is extending its post-IPO moonshot, today’s macro calendar could test the gap higher, and Adobe is catching heat after a CFO exit. So, yes, the market found a new reason to gap. Very original.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.12.26 market close.

Market News

• Peace headlines send futures flying: U.S. and Iran agreed to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Nasdaq-100 futures up roughly 2% and S&P futures about 1.2–1.3% while crude slid hard. Risk-on is back, at least until the next headline machine sneezes. CNBC / Bloomberg

• Oil loses the war premium: Brent sliding toward the low-$80s puts pressure on energy names like XLE, XOM, and CVX. Watch for lower highs on relief bounces; the “panic bid” in crude just got escorted out of the building. Bloomberg

• SpaceX keeps squeezing higher: After pricing at 135 and closing Friday around 161, SpaceX is indicated higher again premarket near 170, keeping high-beta tech sentiment warm and bubbly. IPO traders have officially entered “don’t blink, don’t breathe” mode. CNBC

• June 15 macro calendar gets a spotlight: Empire State, capacity utilization, industrial production, and NAHB housing data are on deck, giving traders several chances to turn a clean trend day into a blender with Wi-Fi. CNBC

• Adobe gaps lower on CFO exit: ADBE is indicated down roughly 6.8% after CFO Dan Durn’s planned departure, putting the stock on watch for a news-driven technical break. Software investors love uncertainty almost as much as they love paying 40x sales for “AI workflow optimization.” Yahoo Finance

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Buffett has a charming way of making billionaire status sound like he tripped over a savings account and accidentally became the Oracle of Omaha.

But buried under the humility is the part traders love to ignore: compound interest only works if you stay in the game long enough for it to matter. That means not blowing up your account because one candle looked “pretty convincing,” not revenge-trading a bad morning into a worse afternoon, and not treating every gap-up like an invitation from the market gods.

Luck helps. Talent helps. Being born into the greatest capital market machine in history definitely doesn’t hurt. But the real edge is patience stacked on discipline stacked on time.

In trading terms: the goal isn’t to hit one glorious home run and immediately start pricing Lamborghinis. It’s to protect capital, take high-quality setups, manage risk, and let the boring math quietly do its thing.

Compound interest is not sexy. Neither is flossing. Both work suspiciously well.