The Trading Post | 06.16.26

Good morning,

Tech melted higher after the U.S.–Iran peace deal crushed oil, traders are now staring down Kevin Warsh’s first Fed decision, SpaceX is still acting like gravity was optional, Qualcomm is trying to buy its way deeper into AI chips, and crude just lost its geopolitical cape.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.15.26 market close.

Market News

• Peace Deal Sends Stocks Into Breakout Mode: The Dow hit a fresh record and the S&P 500 surged after a preliminary U.S.–Iran peace agreement cooled Middle East risk and sent crude sharply lower. Growth bulls saw falling oil and immediately started pressing buttons like caffeinated toddlers. CNBC

• Tech And Semis Lead The Risk-On Stampede: Nasdaq names and chip stocks ripped as lower oil helped ease inflation anxiety and traders rotated back into AI, growth, and anything with “compute” in the investor deck. Watch NQ and ES for gap-and-go continuation; failed follow-through sets up the usual “congratulations, you bought the top” gap-fill trade. Yahoo Finance

• Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Puts SPX Vol Back On The Menu: The June 16–17 FOMC decision marks Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, with traders watching the dots, inflation language, and any hint that rate cuts are getting pushed deeper into the “maybe someday, champ” pile. SPX, QQQ, TLT, XLF, and utilities all deserve attention around the announcement. Reuters

• SpaceX Keeps Ripping After IPO Liftoff: SpaceX shares continued their post-IPO melt-up, turning the stock into the market’s newest high-beta obsession. Momentum traders can use prior highs and IPO-day levels as their roadmap; everyone else can watch and pretend valuation still matters during a mania. Reuters

• Qualcomm Pops On Tenstorrent Deal Chatter: Qualcomm jumped after reports it is in talks to buy AI chip startup Tenstorrent for $8B–$10B, giving QCOM a fresh AI narrative beyond phones and modem chips. Watch the news-gap low for support; hold above it and bulls stay in control, lose it and the deal-chatter sugar high starts wearing off. Reuters

• Oil’s Risk Premium Gets Rug-Pulled: WTI and Brent slid hard as the peace deal and potential Strait of Hormuz reopening reset the energy trade almost overnight. CL traders should watch prior breakout support for either a short-covering bounce or a breakdown continuation; XLE laggards that can’t reclaim support while the broader market rallies may be prime short-spread candidates. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (SUNB) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• FedEx Corp. (FDX) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• KB Home (KBH) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Buffett, in classic Buffett fashion, makes building massive wealth sound like a casserole recipe: geography, biology, and time. Very humble. Very annoying. Very accurate.

For traders, the real lesson is compound interest — not just on money, but on behavior. Good habits compound. Bad habits compound faster, because apparently the market has a rewards program for undisciplined nonsense.

One smart trade doesn’t build a fortune. One dumb trade doesn’t destroy you. But repeated over time? That’s where the magic — or the financial crime scene — happens.

The goal isn’t to hit one heroic trade and ride into the sunset wearing a cape made of weekly options. It’s to survive long enough, stay consistent enough, and let the math quietly do what math does best: make patient people look like geniuses.