The Trading Post | 06.17.26

Good morning,

S&P and Nasdaq futures are trying to firm up ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed decision, chip stocks are staging another rebound attempt, Dow strength is clashing with tech rotation, SpaceX mania is making risk appetite look suspiciously caffeinated, and CarMax is jumping premarket after a stronger-than-expected report.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.16.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Warsh’s Fed Debut: S&P and Nasdaq futures are up slightly while Dow futures sit near flat as traders brace for a likely no-cut Fed decision and a “higher for longer” dot plot. Watch ES/NQ for breakout continuation if the presser leans dovish, but don’t marry the first spike — Fed Day has a long history of making confident traders look like unpaid interns. Reuters

• Fed Expected To Hold, But The Dot Plot May Do The Punching: The Warsh-led Fed is expected to keep rates steady, with markets focused on whether cuts get pushed further into the future. A hawkish tilt could pressure high-multiple growth, support the dollar/rates trade, and create downside acceleration in ES/NQ if buyers blink. Reuters

• Dow Records Meet Tech Rotation Drama: After another Dow record and softer action in the S&P/Nasdaq, traders are watching whether money rotates back into megacap tech or keeps hiding in industrials and cyclicals like it found a bunker with snacks. Consider DIA-short vs. QQQ/NQ-long spreads if Fed commentary cools rate fears and growth catches a bid. CNBC

• SpaceX Mania Keeps Momentum Traders Busy: SpaceX’s surge past Amazon in market cap has traders watching space, AI-adjacent, and semiconductor sympathy names for follow-through. For listed momentum plays, focus on reclaiming key moving averages before chasing calls — enthusiasm is not a trading plan, no matter how nice it looks in premarket. Bloomberg

• Macro Prints Set The Morning Trap Before The Fed: Retail sales, industrial output, and other morning data give ES/NQ traders early volatility before the 2 p.m. main event. Use overnight high/low and prior-session VWAP as hard decision zones; “I’ll just feel it out” remains Wall Street’s most expensive trading system. MarketWatch

• Chips Try To Rebound Into Event Risk: Semiconductor names are attempting to stabilize after recent weakness, putting SOXX, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and related AI names on watch. Clean reclaims of short-term moving averages favor tactical call spreads; failed rallies into resistance favor fade setups, especially if yields firm after the Fed. Yahoo Finance

• CarMax Pops After Earnings Beat: KMX is up more than 3.5% premarket after better-than-expected earnings and revenue, making auto retail and consumer-credit names worth watching. Trade it against the premarket high and daily resistance: breakouts favor calls/call spreads, while rejection opens the door for gap-fill puts. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Trading is mostly the art of figuring out what actually matters while the market fires 47 flashing lights into your face like a casino designed by a caffeinated economist.

Today, that means separating signal from noise. The Fed matters. The dot plot matters. Warsh’s tone matters. Whether a random mid-cap stock is up 1.4% because someone on social media yelled “AI infrastructure” into a spreadsheet probably does not.

The best traders are not the ones reacting to everything. They’re the ones ruthless enough to ignore most things, patient enough to wait for clean levels, and disciplined enough to not confuse movement with opportunity.

Because in the market, everything feels important right before it becomes irrelevant.

Trade smart. Manage risk. And maybe don’t let Fed Day turn your account into a philosophy experiment.