The Trading Post | 06.18.26

June 18, 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street futures are bouncing as the U.S.-Iran deal keeps oil under pressure, the Fed’s hawkish hold is forcing traders to rethink the “cuts are coming” fantasy, crude is sliding into the mid/high-70s, and Intel is catching a risk-on bid as semis try to remember how breakouts work.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 06.17.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures bounce as Iran deal offsets Fed hangover: U.S. index futures are rebounding as peace-deal optimism cools oil and lifts risk appetite, though the Fed’s hawkish hold is still capping the party. Watch SPY/QQQ for follow-through versus a classic “nice gap, shame if someone sold it” open. Reuters

  • Fed holds rates, but hints at a hike: The Fed left rates unchanged, but projections now point to at least one possible hike later this year. That keeps pressure on long-duration growth, speculative tech, and anything priced like gravity was repealed. Reuters

  • Oil slides as geopolitical premium gets drained: Brent is near the high-$70s and WTI is around the mid-$70s after the interim U.S.-Iran deal eased supply fears. Airlines, transports, and consumer names get a tailwind; energy bulls get another character-building exercise. Reuters

  • Intel leads the chip rebound: Intel is catching a premarket bid alongside better tech sentiment, but semis still need confirmation after recent momentum damage. Tactical dip-buyers can watch INTC, NVDA, AMD, SOXX, and QQQ — but only if buyers defend the opening range instead of doing that fun thing where they vanish at 9:47. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • TD SYNNEX (SNX) - Thursday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Coinbase Global, Inc (COIN),
Eli, Lily and Company (LLY)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Snowflake Inc. Class A Common (SNOW)

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Zscaler, Inc (ZS), Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP), Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.

Raymond DeVoe Jr.

Why It Matters:

Markets have a charming way of making “just a little more return” sound sophisticated right before it turns into a group therapy session with tickers. Today’s tape is giving traders two competing temptations: chase risk because oil is falling, or chase yield because the Fed just reminded everyone it still owns the punch bowl.

The adult answer, tragically, is patience. If the Fed is staying hawkish and crude is breaking lower, relative strength matters more than opinions. Let price confirm the setup. Let levels do the talking. And try not to confuse “this looks cheap” with “this has stopped falling.” That’s not analysis — that’s emotional averaging with a brokerage login.