The Trading Post | 06.24.26

Good morning,

Tech futures are trying to stabilize after a brutal Nasdaq wipeout, crude oil is sliding as Hormuz tanker traffic normalizes, the dollar remains firm under a hawkish Fed backdrop, and volatility risk is still elevated after the global tech selloff. Translation: the market is open, the machines are caffeinated, and every bounce still needs to prove it isn’t just a dead cat with a Bloomberg terminal.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.23.26 market close.

Market News

• US Index Futures Edge Higher As Traders Tiptoe Back Into Tech After $1T Nasdaq Rout: Tech is attempting a pre-market bounce, but QQQ and NQ still have overhead supply from the recent breakdown. Watch for a fade-the-first-pop setup if the open gaps into prior support-turned-resistance. If megacap AI and semis can reclaim VWAP and hold it with volume, the bounce has legs. If not, congrats, you’ve found another trap door. Schwab Network / Reuters

• Crude Oil Extends Slide Near 4-Month Lows As More Tankers Clear Strait Of Hormuz: Oil continues to bleed lower as tanker traffic resumes through Hormuz, putting pressure on XLE, XOP, OIH, and higher-beta shale names. Failed bounces into short-term moving averages could offer clean short setups, while fresh crude lows may give a tailwind to airlines, transports, and rate-sensitive growth. Times of India

• Hawkish Fed Keeps Dollar Firm Even As Wall Street Hikes S&P 500 Year-End Target To 7,800: A stronger dollar and higher index targets keep the bias tilted toward quality US large caps over commodity-sensitive names. Traders can watch SPY and DIA pullbacks into rising 20-day moving averages, but breadth needs to confirm. Otherwise, it’s just Wall Street raising targets after the move, which is apparently called “research.” Morgan Stanley / Metrobank Wealth Insights

• Global Tech Rout Leaves Wall Street On Edge As Traders Brace For Renewed Volatility: Realized and implied volatility remain elevated after the tech selloff, favoring shorter holding periods, tighter trade management, and well-defined risk. For options traders, defined-risk spreads make more sense than naked premium selling in high-beta tech names until the market stops behaving like it found espresso and leverage in the same drawer. Investing.com / Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Every market correction comes with a fresh excuse, a new acronym, and at least one person on financial TV explaining why the laws of supply, demand, fear, and greed have been permanently suspended.

They haven’t.

Today’s tape is a good reminder that traders do not need to predict whether this bounce becomes a recovery or just another beautifully decorated bull trap. They need levels, confirmation, and exits. If tech reclaims VWAP and breadth improves, trade the bounce. If crude keeps falling and energy fails, respect the weakness. If volatility expands, reduce size and stop pretending your “long-term conviction” applies to a 0DTE contract.

Markets change costumes. Human behavior just keeps wearing the same clown shoes.